“双碳”目标下中国道路交通部门低碳转型路径研究  

Research on the low-carbon transition path of China’s road transport sector under the“dual-carbon”goals

作　　者：张书瑞 谢晓敏[2,3] 张庭婷[2] 谢航 孙飞虎 ZHANG Shurui;XIE Xiaomin;ZHANG Tingting;XIE Hang;SUN Feihu(China-UK Low Carbon College,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 201306;Research Institute of Carbon Neutrality,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030;School of Mechanical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240;College of Smart Energy,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学中英国际低碳学院,上海201306 [2]上海交通大学碳中和发展研究院,上海200030 [3]上海交通大学机械与动力工程学院,上海200240 [4]上海交通大学智慧能源创新学院,上海200240

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2024年第11期430-442,共13页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(No.2022YFB2403200);中国工程院咨询项目“能源战略(2035)”(No.2019-ZD-20)。

摘　　要：道路交通部门是中国二氧化碳排放的主要部门之一,其低碳转型对“双碳”目标的实现十分重要.本文采用自下而上的方法,构建了中国道路交通部门低碳转型的研究模型对我国未来的汽车保有量、能源消费与二氧化碳排放进行预测,并评估了不同措施的碳减排贡献.结果表明:2040年机动车保有量将达到5.37亿辆,千人汽车保有量为407辆;2060年机动车保有量将降至4.58亿辆,千人保有量为427辆.综合政策情景下能源消费于2026年达峰5.03亿t标准煤(tce),碳排放于2025年达峰10.12亿t CO_(2),2060年实现碳中和.通过提高车辆能效、推广新能源汽车、发展替代燃料和优化交通运输结构能有效实现道路交通低碳转型,短期内提高车辆能效的碳减排潜力最大,长期来看推广新能源汽车的碳减排潜力最大.The road transport sector is one of the major contributors to carbon dioxide emissions in China,and its low-carbon transformation is crucial for achieving the“dual-carbon”goals.This paper adopts a bottom-up approach to construct a research model for the low-carbon transition of China's road transport sector.It forecasts the future vehicle ownership,energy consumption,and carbon dioxide emissions,and assesses the carbon reduction contributions of various measures.The results indicate that by 2040,the number of vehicles will reach 537 million,with 407 vehicles per thousand people;by 2060,the number will decrease to 458 million,with 427 vehicles per thousand people.Under the comprehensive policy scenario,energy consumption is projected to peak in 2026 at 503 million tonnes of coal equivalent(tce),and carbon emissions are expected to peak in 2025 at 1.012 billion tonnes of CO_(2),with carbon neutrality achieved by 2060.Low-carbon transition in road transport can be effectively achieved through improving vehicle efficiency,promoting new energy vehicles,developing alternative fuels,and optimizing transportation structures.In the short term,the greatest carbon reduction potential lies in improving vehicle efficiency,while in the long term,promoting new energy vehicles holds the greatest potential for carbon reduction.

关 键 词：道路交通 低碳转型 汽车保有量 “双碳”目标 碳减排潜力 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X322