无人驾驶技术对劳动力市场的冲击与应对策略  

Impact of autonomous driving technology on the labor market and coping strategies

作　　者：赵科翔 高歌 ZHAO Kexiang;GAO Ge(School of Economics,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450016,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]河南财经政法大学经济学院,河南郑州450016

出　　处：《长安大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第5期101-114,共14页Journal of Chang'an University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23JBL097)。

摘　　要：随着无人驾驶技术的不断变革升级,对劳动力市场的冲击愈加显著,对就业结构也产生了深远影响。劳动力市场会出现结构性失业风险,特别是低技能驾驶岗位面临较高的替代可能性;同时,在新兴技术领域带来了就业机会的增长,对劳动者技能提出更高要求。通过文献分析和历史交通变革案例对比,基于实际经济周期理论,分析技术冲击对经济的短期波动与长期增长影响,揭示了无人驾驶技术对传统岗位的替代效应、新兴岗位的创造效应以及生产率的提升。研究发现,无人驾驶技术将显著减少传统驾驶员岗位,导致结构性失业和工资水平下降,但也推动高技能岗位的增长,并为高精度地图、智能交通系统等新兴领域带来了就业机会,提升了整体运输效率和经济增长潜力;然而,劳动者的技能水平难以快速跟上技术变革,导致就业市场在短期内面临较大压力。研究表明,无人驾驶技术带来的就业冲击需要通过政策干预和技能再培训加以缓解;应制定灵活的劳动力市场政策,提供就业匹配和技能培训,完善社会保障体系,同时推动相关法规建设;通过构建高效的就业生态系统,技术进步可为经济增长和社会发展带来长远益处。As autonomous driving technology continues to evolve and upgrade,its impact on the labor market has grown more pronounced,profoundly reshaping employment structures.The labor market faces significant risks of structural unemployment,particularly among low-skilled driving positions that are highly susceptible to substitution.Simultaneously,emerging technological fields are generating new employment opportunities while placing higher demands on workers'skillsets.This paper uses literature analysis,comparisons of historical transportation reform cases,and the real business cycle theory to examine the short-term fluctuations and long-term growth effects of technological advancements on the economy.It highlights the substitution effect of autonomous driving technology on traditional jobs,the creation of new roles in emerging sectors,and its contribution to productivity enhancements.The findings indicate that autonomous driving technology will substantially reduce demand for traditional driver roles,leading to structural unemployment and downward pressure on wage levels.Conversely,it promotes the creation of high-skilled jobs and new opportunities in areas such as high-precision mapping and intelligent transportation systems.These developments enhance overall transportation efficiency and unlock greater economic growth potential.However,the pace of technological reform exceeds the ability of many workers to quickly acquire the necessary skills,intensifying short-term pressures on the labor market.The study underscores the need for policy interventions and workforce retraining to mitigate the impact from autonomous driving technology.Flexible labor market policies should be designed to facilitate job matching and skills development.Additionally,improvements to the social security system and the establishment of relevant legal frameworks are essential.By fostering an efficient employment ecosystem,these measures can ensure that technological progress delivers long-term benefits for economic growth and social well-being.

关 键 词：无人驾驶技术 劳动力市场 技术冲击 实际经济周期理论 智能交通 

分 类 号：U463.6[机械工程—车辆工程] F241.2[交通运输工程—载运工具运用工程]