基于重复测量数据预测非时变结局发生风险的两阶段建模方法  

A two-stage modeling approach for predicting occurrence risk of non-time-varying outcome based on repeated measurement data

作　　者：贾玉龙 任燕[1,2,3] 魏万强 徐叶 刘春容 赵芃 刘兴会 孙鑫 谭婧[1,2,3] JIA Yulong;REN Yan;WEI Wanqiang;XU Ye;LIU Chunrong;ZHAO Peng;LIU Xinghui;SUN Xin;TAN Jing(Chinese Evidence-based Medicine Center,West China Hospital,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610041,P.R.China;NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan,Chengdu 610041,P.R.China;Sichuan Center of Technology Innovation for Real World Data,Chengdu 610041,P.R.China;Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics,Key Laboratory of Obstetrics and Gynecologic and Pediatric Diseases and Birth Defects of Ministry of Education,West China Second University Hospital of Sichuan University,Chengdu 610041,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西医院中国循证医学中心,成都610041 [2]国家药品监督管理局海南真实世界数据研究与评价重点实验室,成都610041 [3]四川省真实世界数据技术创新中心,成都610041 [4]四川大学华西第二医院妇产科出生缺陷与相关妇儿疾病教育部重点实验室,成都610041

出　　处：《中国循证医学杂志》2024年第11期1360-1364,共5页Chinese Journal of Evidence-based Medicine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2021YFC2701503);四川大学研究生培养教育创新改革项目(编号:2023HXKC019);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:72174132);四川省科技厅计划项目(编号:2024YFFK0174)。

摘　　要：利用患者的重复测量数据提升预测模型的分类能力是当前临床预测模型开发中的关键方法问题。本研究拟探索两阶段模型的统计建模策略在基于重复测量数据开展非时变结局预测模型构建中的应用和价值,并以严重产后出血风险预测为例,从数据结构、基本原理、软件操作和模型评价等多个维度,介绍两阶段模型的实现过程,以期为临床研究者提供方法学指导。The use of repeated measurement data from patients to improve the classification ability of prediction models is a key methodological issue in the current development of clinical prediction models.This study aims to investigate the statistical modeling approach of the two-stage model in developing prediction models for non-time-varying outcomes using repeated measurement data.Using the prediction of the risk of severe postpartum hemorrhage as a case study,this study presents the implementation process of the two-stage model from various perspectives,including data structure,basic principles,software utilization,and model evaluation,to provide methodological support for clinical investigators.

关 键 词：两阶段模型 重复测量数据 非时变结局 严重产后出血 

分 类 号：R714.461[医药卫生—妇产科学]