资源型城市社会-生态系统恢复力演变及其主导障碍因素——以攀枝花市为例  

Evolution of social-ecological system resilience and its main obstacle factors in resource-based cities:A case study of Panzhihua

作　　者：蒋应刚 欧阳进一 张继飞[2,3] JIANG Yinggang;OUYANG Jinyi;ZHANG Jifei(College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550025,China;Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS,Chengdu 610041,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵阳550025 [2]中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都610041 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第10期2064-2077,共14页Resources Science

基　　金：中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2018407)。

摘　　要：【目的】从社会-生态系统视角分析资源型城市恢复力演变及其主导障碍因素,厘清系统脆弱性、应对能力与恢复力之间的关系,为资源型城市成功转型提供科学依据。【方法】采用集对分析法、岭回归分析和障碍度模型,对西南地区典型资源型城市——攀枝花市2000—2020年社会-生态系统(SES)及其社会、经济和生态子系统的脆弱性、应对能力和恢复力进行定量测度与分析,探讨脆弱性和应对能力对恢复力的影响,解析社会-生态系统恢复力的驱动机制。【结果】(1)攀枝花市SES脆弱性指数波动下降且整体处于中等水平,各子系统脆弱性亦大致呈现同样的变动趋势;脆弱性整体上对恢复力呈负向影响,其中社会脆弱性为正向影响,生态脆弱性为负向影响,经济脆弱性无明显影响。(2)攀枝花市SES及其各子系统的应对能力均呈上升趋势;社会和经济应对能力对恢复力有显著正向影响,生态应对能力的正向影响相对较弱。(3)攀枝花市SES恢复力指数整体稳步上升,各子系统的主要脆弱性和应对能力因素对恢复力具有显著影响。(4)障碍度分析显示,早期恢复力的主要制约因素是生态环境效益,后期转为产业技术升级和经济协调发展相关因素。【结论】攀枝花市SES脆弱性波动下降,应对能力显著提高,恢复力不断增强。在城市转型发展中,加强社会和经济应对能力建设、优化生态环境,是提升攀枝花城市恢复力的关键举措。[Objective] The aim of this study was to analyze the change of resilience and its main obstacle factors in resource-based cities from a social-ecological system(SES) perspective,clarify the relationships between system vulnerability,coping capacity,and resilience,and provide scientific evidence for the successful transformation of resource-based cities.[Methods] Using set pair analysis,ridge regression analysis,and obstacle degree models,we quantitatively measured and analyzed the vulnerability,coping capacity,and resilience of the SES of Panzhihua City and its social,economic,and ecological subsystems.We explored the effects of vulnerability and coping capacity on resilience and analyzed the driving mechanisms of SES resilience.[Results](1) The vulnerability of Panzhihua City's SES showed a fluctuating downward trend,remaining at a moderate level overall.Social vulnerability had a significant positive impact on resilience,ecological vulnerability had a significant negative impact,while economic vulnerability had no significant impact.(2) The coping capacities of Panzhihua City's SES and its subsystems all showed upward trends.Social and economic coping capacities had significant positive impacts on resilience,whereas the positive impact of ecological coping capacity was relatively weak.(3) The resilience index of Panzhihua City's SES increased steadily overall;the main vulnerability and coping capacity factors of each subsystem had significant impacts on resilience.(4) Obstacle degree analysis indicated that in the early stages,the main limiting factors for resilience were ecological environment constraints,which later shifted to factors related to technological upgrading of industries and coordinated economic development.[Conclusion] The vulnerability of Panzhihua City's social-ecological system(SES) has exhibited a fluctuating downward trend,while its coping capacity has significantly improved,leading to a continuous enhancement of resilience.In the context of urban transformation and development,it is initial

关 键 词：资源型城市 社会-生态系统(SES) 恢复力 障碍因素 集对分析 攀枝花市 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]