煤炭资源型城市生态系统服务供需匹配多情景模拟与空间格局优化  

Multi-scenario simulation and spatial pattern optimization of supply and demand matching of ecosystem services in coal resource-based cities

作　　者：明莉 常江 李成 MING Li;CHANG Jiang;LI Cheng(College of Fine Arts and Design,University of Jinan,Jinan 250000,China;Jiangsu Vocational Institute of Architectural Technology,Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Building Energy Saving and Construct Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;School of Architecture and Design,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]济南大学美术与设计学院,济南250000 [2]江苏建筑职业技术学院江苏建筑节能与建造技术协同创新中心,徐州221116 [3]中国矿业大学建筑与设计学院,徐州221116

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第10期2078-2091,共14页Resources Science

基　　金：江苏省建筑节能与建筑技术协同创新中心青年博士基金计划项目(SJXTBS2110);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(24YJCZH131);国家自然科学基金项目(42371307);江苏省社会科学基金项目(20SHD010)。

摘　　要：【目的】在采矿活动与城镇化双重影响下,煤炭资源型城市极易出现生态系统服务供需失衡,本文通过生态系统服务供需匹配和土地利用变化的未来情景模拟,旨在为煤炭资源型城市生态保护和城镇发展提供理论和案例支撑。【方法】以生态系统服务供需矛盾突出的典型煤炭资源型城市——安徽省淮南市为研究区,基于2005—2020年的土地利用数据,借助PLUS模型模拟预测研究区2035年自然发展、城市发展、矿业发展、生态保护情景下的土地利用变化,利用InVEST模型预测4种情景下6项生态系统服务的供需匹配状况,并基于生态系统服务供需构建了淮南市生态保护和城镇发展格局。【结果】(1)2035年4种情景土地利用模拟结果各异。自然发展情景下建设用地面积增加,耕地、林地、草地、水域面积减少;城市发展情景下,城镇建设用地面积大幅增加,其他地类面积减小;矿业发展情景下工矿用地及(沉陷)水域面积增大,其余地类面积减小;生态保护情景下耕地、林地、草地、水域面积显著增加,建设用地面积缓慢增长,耕地面积减小。(2)在不同情景下各类生态系统服务供需匹配状况差异明显,城市发展和矿业发展情景下,固碳服务、土壤保持服务供需关系优于自然发展情景;生态保护情景下产水服务、休闲娱乐服务、水质净化服务、粮食供给服务供需匹配关系优于自然发展情景。(3)综合而言,城市与矿业发展情景下,供需不均衡区域随之扩大,但同时也将带动研究区经济发展;生态保护情景下研究区整体供需状况得到优化,供给盈余区域随生态地类扩张而扩张。【结论】基于多情景分析得出,淮南市应以矿业发展为基调,通过城市开发区和预设生态保护区优化生态系统服务供需,构建“一轴三廊多核”的生态保护格局和“一主一副多节点”的城镇发展体系,调整国土空间利用结[Objective] Mining and urbanization have transformed the ecological and socioeconomic aspects of coal resource-based cities.This study aimed to measure the spatial characteristics of ecosystem services supply and demand matching in coal resource-based cities based on the urbanmining-rural tri-structure and to simulate future scenarios,and constructed the ecological protection and urban development pattern of Huainan City based on the supply and demand of ecosystem services.[Methods] This study focused on Huainan,a typical mature coal resource-based city in Anhui Province.Using land use data from 2005 to 2020,the PLUS model simulated future land changes in Huainan under four scenarios:natural,urban development,mining development,and ecological protection.The InVEST model then evaluated the supply-demand matching of six ecosystem services for 2035.[Results](1) By 2035,the natural scenario increased construction land,while other lands decreased.Urban development significantly expanded urban land.Mining development boosted mining and subsidence areas.Ecological protection enhanced cropland,forest,grass,and water areas and construction land increase slowly.(2) Urban and mining scenarios improved matching for carbon sequestration and erosion prevention compared to the natural scenario.,while ecological protection scenario enhanced water production,recreation and tourism,water purification,and food supply.(3) Urban development scenario expanded low matching degree areas but stimulated economic growth,whereas ecological protection scenario improved overall supply-demand balance and increased ecological land [Conclusion] The ecological protection scenario optimized supplydemand matching,while urban development degraded it but stimulated the economic growth of the Huainan City.The economic protection pattern of “one axis,three corridors,and multiple cores” and the urban development system of “one main,one auxiliary,and multiple nodes” are constructed.This study offers a foundation for balanced development in coal r

关 键 词：煤炭资源型城市 生态系统服务 土地利用变化 PLUS模型 供需匹配度 多情景模拟 淮南市 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济] X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F301.2