预算软约束为何会抑制企业短债长投  

Why Budget Soft Constraints Inhibit Corporate Short-term Debt Financing for Long-term Investment

作　　者：王鹏[1] 姚海鑫[2] WANG Peng;YAO Haixin(Liaoning University,Shenyang,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学部商学院,110036 [2]辽宁大学经济学部新华国际商学院,110036

出　　处：《经济学动态》2024年第9期94-112,共19页Economic Perspectives

摘　　要：基于信贷供需框架,本文数理模型推导分析和基于2010-2021年我国A股上市公司的实证分析表明,预算软约束抑制了企业短债长投。作用机制表现在信贷供需两端,信贷需求端机制为:预算软约束通过政府补助既能改善企业现金流水平,降低企业短期债务融资需求,又能增加企业资产总量,增强企业偿债能力,扩大企业长期债务融资规模,进而优化企业债务融资期限结构;信贷供给端机制为:预算软约束通过增大银行到期收回本金和利息的概率,能降低银行不良贷款率,保障银行放贷的安全性,增加了银行发放长期贷款的意愿与规模,优化了银行放贷期限结构;信贷供需两端期限结构的共同优化抑制了企业短债长投。本文首次从抑制短债长投视角,发现并解释了预算软约束具有积极一面,不仅在理论上拓宽了预算软约束的内涵,也为短债长投后续研究搭建了较为系统的理论分析框架,有助于从一个全新的视角更加全面地理解以我国为代表的经济转型国家的“债务期限结构”之谜。Corporate long-term investment serves as not only a solid foundation to stimulate employment and promote scientific and technological innovation but also as a micro-level support in achieving high-quality development.In recent years,government subsidies to corporations burdened with policy responsibilities such as employment and technological innovation have increased exponentially.The external income of corporations has softened the constraint of corporate internal income on corporate expenditures,leading to budget soft constraints that deviate from the budget line(budget hard constraints)of microeconomic theory.Simultaneously,under the credit rationing of long-term financing,corporations are compelled to finance through short-term debt for long-term investment,thereby increasing systemic financial risks.It is evident that within the context of achieving high-quality development,whether budget soft constraint will give rise to the risk superposition by exacerbating short-term debt financing for long-term investment or mitigate risks by inhibiting it,which is of great significance for keeping systematic financial risks from occurring,promoting high-quality development of corporations,and evaluating the effect of soft budget constraints.To address the above issues,this paper,based on a long-term investment model,builds a theoretical framework on the impact of budget soft constraints on corporate short-term debt financing for long-term investment,integrating financing decisions across different debt maturities of corporations and lending decisions across different maturities of banks.Mathematical derivation results and empirical results based on data from the CSMAR database covering listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2010 to 2021 reveal the following:(1)Budget soft constraints inhibit corporate short-term debt financing for long-term investment,theoretically demonstrating a positive aspect of budget soft constraints.(2)The mechanism operates through both sides of credit supply and de

关 键 词：预算软约束 短债长投 融资期限结构 放贷期限结构 投融资期限结构匹配 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F832.51[经济管理—国民经济]