新兴技术弱信号识别:理论模型与测度方法  

Identification of weak signals of emerging technologies:Theoretical model and measurement method

作　　者：韩盟 陈悦[1] 王玉奇 谢俊杰 崔林蔚 HAN Meng;CHEN Yue;WANG Yu-qi;XIE Jun-jie;CUI Lin-wei(The Institute of Science of Science and S&T Management&WISE Lab,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;College of Information Resource Management,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110136,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学科学学与科技管理研究所暨WISE实验室,辽宁大连116024 [2]辽宁大学信息资源管理学院,辽宁沈阳110136

出　　处：《科学学研究》2024年第11期2262-2274,共13页Studies in Science of Science

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(22JZD021);辽宁省科技创新智库研究基地项目(ZX20211063);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(DUT23RW302)。

摘　　要：习近平总书记曾指出“要以小见大、见微知著,尽早解读、科学预见形势发展走势和隐藏在信号背后的风险挑战。”这正对当前愈加重要的科技自立自强和技术预见工作提出了更高要求,新兴技术弱信号的识别研究价值凸显。研究中,以范式转移理论、知识层次理论和意义建构理论为基础,梳理了新兴技术弱信号识别的理论基础,构建出新兴技术弱信号识别的理论模型;从新颖性、关注度和成长性三个维度设计出6项二级指标及其测度方法,创建了基于三元计量特征的新兴技术弱信号识别方法。最后,以量子信息技术领域为实证对象,2011-2016年数据进行方法检验,2017-2022年数据进行识别预测,评估判断出量子中继、量子网络、量子纠缠浓缩、量子密钥分发和量子点医学共5项当前量子领域新兴技术弱信号,证实了本研究方法的有效性,可以辅助研发人员和管理决策者做未来技术的研发判断。President Xi Jinping stressed"We should observe the small to understand the big,perceive the subtle to grasp the significant,and promptly interpret the trends and risks hidden behind the signals,with a scientific approach to foreseeing the development of the situation."This statement places higher demands on the increasingly critical research into technological self-reliance and foresight,emphasizing the importance of identifying and studying emerging technologies earlier and more accurately.In contemporary scientific research,there is an urgent need for robust evaluation methods to tackle the challenges of predicting emerging technologies.Therefore,research on weak signal identification,which incorporates the distinct characteristics of weak signals,has gained prominence.In our research,we systematically reviewed the theoretical framework for recognizing weak signals in emerging technologies.We grounded this review in paradigm shift theory,knowledge hierarchy theory,and meaning construction theory.By integrating the concepts of technological breakthroughs from paradigm shift theory,noise filtering from knowledge hierarchy theory,and intelligent generation from meaning construction theory,we developed a theoretical model for identifying weak signals in emerging technologies.Next,we referred to existing research to identify three fundamental characteristics of weak signals:high novelty,low attention,and high growth.Using bibliometrics,text mining,topic clustering,similarity calculation,and social network analysis,we designed quantitative methods for six secondary indicators:attention width,attention intensity,individual growth,group growth,time novelty,and content novelty.This culminated in a method for recognizing weak signals in emerging technologies based on ternary econometric features.We then applied this method to the field of quantum information technology.By analyzing journal papers and patent data from 2011 to 2016,we identified five emerging weak signals:quantum cryptography research,quantum algorithm re

关 键 词：新兴技术弱信号 理论模型 识别方法 三元特征 量子信息技术 

分 类 号：G312[文化科学]