1990年至2049年全球脑卒中疾病负担分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction of global burden of stroke diseases from 1990 to 2049

作　　者：石沪娟 夏一航 程怡然 程明媚 梁振[1] 王岩中 谢宛青 Shi Hujuan;Xia Yihang;Cheng Yiran;Cheng Mingmei;Liang Zhen;Wang Yanzhong;Xie Wanqing(School of Biomedical Engineering,Anhui Medical University,Hefei 230000,China;School of Mental Health and Psychological Sciences,Anhui Medical University,Hefei 230000,China;School of Life Course and Population Health Sciences,King's College London,London UKSE11UL,UK)

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学生物医学工程学院,合肥230032 [2]安徽医科大学精神卫生与心理科学学院,合肥230032 [3]英国伦敦国王学院生命与人口健康科学学院,伦敦SE11UL

出　　处：《中国医学装备》2024年第11期141-150,共10页China Medical Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(62306012)。

摘　　要：目的:通过分析1990年至2019年全球脑卒中疾病负担现状,预测2020年至2049年30年脑卒中疾病负担发展趋势,为制订国家脑卒中疾病卫生政策提供依据。方法:检索全球疾病负担2019(GBD2019)数据库,提取1990年至2019年全球脑卒中发病率、患病率、病死率和残疾调整生命年(DALYs)疾病负担指标数据,使用线性回归、泊松回归和指数回归分析对其随时间趋势变化进行建模,基于人均国内生产总值(GDP)预测并研究脑卒中与社会人口指数(SDI)之间的关系。结果:1990年至2019年,全球脑卒中疾病负担显著增长,预计未来30年(2020年至2049年)持续上升,2049年全球脑卒中发病、患病、病死人数和DALYs相较于2019年分别增加853万例、11 983万例、779万例和11 892万人年,老年人群脑卒中负担显著加重。未来30年男性与女性脑卒中发病率的年龄标准化率相似,而女性患病率的年龄标准化率相对较高,男性病死率和DALYs的年龄标准化率相对较高。脑卒中疾病负担与SDI具有负相关性,SDI低的地区脑卒中疾病负担明显高于SDI高的地区。结论:未来30年全球脑卒中疾病负担增加,这可能与人口老龄化有关,且与经济发展状况密切联系,必须加大对脑卒中的预防力度,并根据不同SDI地区制定针对性策略。Objective:To analyze the current status of the global burden of stroke disease from 1990 to 2019,to predict the development trend of stroke disease burden in the 30 years from 2020 to 2049,and to provide a basis for formulating national health policies on stroke diseases.Methods:The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(GBD 2019)database was searched to extract global stroke disease incidence,prevalence,case fatality,and disabilityadjusted life years(DALYs)disease burden indicators from 1990-2019,the trends over time were modeled using linear,Poisson,and exponential regressions,prediction and study of the relationship between stroke and sociodemographic index(SDI)based on per capita gross domestic product(GDP)were conducted.Results:The global burden of stroke disease increased significantly from 1990-2019 and is predicted to continue to rise over the next 30 years(2020-2049).In 2049,the global stroke incidence,prevalence,case fatality,and DALYs will increase by 8.53 million(63%),119.83 million(109%),7.79 million(118%)and 118.92 million person-years(79%),respectively,compared with 2019,with a significant increase in the burden of stroke in the elderly population.In the next 30 years,the age-standardized incidence rates of stroke in men and women will be similar,while the age-standardized rates of prevalence in women will be relatively higher,and age-standardized case fatality rates and DALYs in men will be relatively higher.The disease burden of stroke was negatively correlated with SDI.The burden of stroke disease was significantly higher in regions with a low SDI than in regions with a high SDI.Conclusion:The global burden of stroke will increase in the next 30 years,which may be related to the aging of population and closely related to the development of economy.It is necessary to strengthen the prevention of stroke and formulate targeted strategies targeted strategies according to different SDI regions.

关 键 词：脑卒中 全球疾病负担 发病率 患病率 病死率 残疾调整生命年(DALYs) 

分 类 号：R743.3[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]