增值税留抵退税、预期与企业雇佣  

VAT Credit Refund,Expectations,and Employment by Enterprises

作　　者：陈宇 陈超凡 李钊 邓磊[2] CHEN Yu;CHEN Chaofan;LI Zhao;DENG Lei(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics,Beijing Technology And Business University)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财政税务学院,北京102200 [2]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第7期96-114,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BGL066)的资助。

摘　　要：本文以2016—2022年A股上市公司为研究样本,利用多期DID模型研究增值税留抵退税政策对企业雇佣规模的影响。研究发现,增值税留抵退税政策使得企业雇佣规模平均扩大了2.31%,并且该效应对资本密集型、处于成长期的企业、非国有企业和融资约束大的企业影响更为显著。机制检验表明,该效应通过缓解企业流动性约束、改变要素投资决策、提振经营主体信心实现。此外,政府预期管理水平更高的地区,留抵退税的就业促进效应更大。本文关于留抵退税政策对企业雇佣的影响研究结论,可为进一步发挥留抵退税政策的就业效应提供参考。In the current context of significant employment pressure and weak economic expectations,"ensuring employment stability and strengthening confidence"has become a key factor in further promoting economic recovery and improvement.The VAT credit refund is the"highlight"of large-scale tax reduction and fee reduction,a major measure to reduce the burden on enterprises and stimulate market vitality,and a major choice for macro policies to support steady growth,employment and structural adjustment.Therefore,it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to study the impact of the tax refund policy on employment.This paper studies the impact of VAT credit refund on employment scales of enterprises,using A-share listed companies from 2016 to 2022 as the research sample and multi-period Difference-in-Differences(DID)model.Robustness tests were carried out in a number of aspects.The micro data of enterprises in this paper are derived from CSMAR database and Wind database,the macroeconomic data are derived from CEInet Statistics Database,and the text data of enterprise expectations and government expectations management level are derived from the economic news database in CNRDS database and infobank database.The study finds that the VAT credit refund led to an average increase of 2.31%in enterprise employment scale.Moreover,this effect was more pronounced for capital-intensive,growth-oriented,non-state-owned,and financially constrained enterprises.Mechanism tests indicate that this effect is achieved through alleviating corporate liquidity constraints,altering factor investment decisions,and boosting the confidence of business entities.Additionally,the study pays attention to the expectation management of fiscal policy,and finds that in regions with higher government expectation management levels,the employment promotion effect of the VAT credit refund is more pronounced.This shows that strengthening the expectation management of fiscal policy can give full play to the policy effect,and it is necessary to do a g

关 键 词：增值税留抵退税 企业雇佣 预期 多期DID 文本分析 

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