基于结构主题模型的民航管制不安全事件主题识别  

Topic identification of air traffic control unsafe events based on structural topic model

作　　者：张洪海[1] 石宗北 李一可 周锦伦 王雨菲 ZHANG Honghai;SHI Zongbei;LI Yike;ZHOU Jinlun;WANG Yufei(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics&Astronautics,Nanjing Jiangsu 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第11期163-169,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2133207,52202404);中国工业和信息化部民用飞机专项科研项目(MJZ1-7N22)。

摘　　要：为探究民航管制运行不安全事件的发生规律及特点,采用结构主题模型捕捉报告中的词汇共现及层次结构。考虑结构主题的语义连贯性以及排他性等指标,辨识管制运行事件的最优主题数目。选取事件严重度及发生时间等协变量,构建融合多变量的主题分析,挖掘不同类型事件的严重度差异性及在时间维度上的演化趋势。最后,基于航空安全自愿报告系统2018-2022年的4346起管制事件报告进行实证分析。研究结果表明:与管制运行有关的不安全事件可分为管制移交、恶劣天气、人为因素事件、夜航航班、场面滑行、起飞离场、部门协调、雷达间隔、设备故障、进近程序、陆空对话、复杂空域环境、飞行冲突、飞行高度、冲/偏出跑道及跑道侵入15类;飞行区滑行、进近程序、飞行冲突等事件更易产生严重事故;飞行高度有关的不安全事件呈逐年上升趋势。研究结果可为提升管制运行安全风险水平提供理论支持,并为管理人员针对性施策提供参考。In order to explore the occurrence regularity and characteristics of unsafe events in civil aviation control operation,the structural topic model(STM)was employed to capture the semantic lexical co-occurrences and hierarchical structures in the reports.The optimal number of topics for operation events control was identified by considering the indexes of structural topics such as semantic coherence and exclusivity.The severity,happening date and other covariates of events were selected to construct the multivariate topic analysis,and the severity difference of different types of events and their evolution trend in the time dimension were mined.The empirical analysis was conducted based on 4,346 control event reports from the Aviation Safety Voluntary Reporting System(ASRS)from 2018 to 2022.Unsafe events related to air traffic control operations can be categorized into 15 types:air traffic control handover,adverse weather conditions,human factors incidents,night flights,ground taxiing,takeoff and departure,interagency coordination,radar separation,equipment failure,approach procedures,radio telephony,complex airspace environments,flight conflicts,flight altitude,runway overrun/excursion,and runway incursions.The events such as flight area taxiing,approach procedure,and flight conflict are more likely to lead to severe accidents,and the unsafe events related to flight altitude present an increasing trend annually.The research results can provide theoretical support for enhancing the level of safety risk in control operation,and offer reference for management personnel to implement the targeted measures.

关 键 词：空中交通管理 民航管制运行 安全水平 不安全事件 结构主题模型 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]