基于PSR模型的湖北省土地生态安全评价及预测  

Evaluation and prediction of land ecological security in Hubei Province based on PSR model

作　　者：陈知椿 彭玉玲 梁嘉毅 CHEN Zhi-chun;PENG Yu-ling;LIANG Jia-yi(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉工程大学土木工程与建筑学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2024年第11期35-42,共8页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部科学技术计划项目(2019-R-020)。

摘　　要：以湖北省为例,综合运用PSR模型、熵权法、综合指数法、障碍度模型、GM(1,1)预测模型等方法对湖北省2015—2021年土地生态安全及主要影响因子进行评价分析,基于GIS对研究区间土地利用变化进行分析,并预测2022—2027年土地生态安全发展趋势。结果表明,研究期间湖北省土地生态安全指数快速增长,只在2016年、2019年因经济大环境、自然灾害与突发传染病有所下降,2021年已达到较安全区间;研究期间湖北省土地结构较合理,未发生明显改变,仍有上升空间,自然资源和生态保护红线得到严守但耕地面积的保持工作仍然不容忽视;障碍度从响应层转至压力、状态层,主要限制因子转移为人口密度、城镇化率、耕地面积比重,这是今后调控的重点;2022—2027年湖北省土地生态安全状况将保持较安全,之后可能突破至安全,发展趋势良好。Taking Hubei Province as an example,the PSR model,entropy weight method,comprehensive index method,obstacle model,GM(1,1)prediction model and other methods were used to evaluate and analyze the land ecological security and main influencing factors in Hubei Province from 2015 to 2021.Based on GIS,the land use change in the study area was analyzed,and the development trend of land ecological security from 2022 to 2027 was predicted.The results showed that the land ecological security index in Hubei Province increased rapidly during the research period,and only decreased in 2016 and 2019 due to the economic environment,natural disasters and sudden infectious diseases.It had reached a relatively safe range in 2021.During the research period,the land structure in Hubei Province was relatively reasonable and did not undergo significant changes.There was still room for land structure improvement,and the red lines for natural resources and ecological protection had been strictly adhered to.However,the maintenance of arable land area could not be ignored.The obstacle degree had shifted from the response layer to the pressure and state layer,and the main limiting factors had shifted to population density,urbanization rate and the proportion of cultivated land,which were the key points of future regulation.The land ecological security status in Hubei Province would remain relatively safe from 2022 to 2027,and might break through to safety in future,with a good development trend.

关 键 词：土地生态安全 评价 预测 PSR模型 熵权法 障碍度模型 GM(1 1)模型 湖北省 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]