论《回到教育的未来》未来观与方法论——兼论“情景分析法”何以是理解国际未来教育的新思维  

Methodological Exploration of"Back to the Future of Education:Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling":Scenarios as the Thinking Tool for Future Education

作　　者：陈红燕 卜玉华[2] CHEN Hongyan;BU Yuhua(Institute of International and Comparative Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062;The Institute of Schooling Reform and Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学国际与比较教育研究所,上海200062 [2]华东师范大学基础教育改革与发展研究所,上海200062

出　　处：《比较教育研究》2024年第11期65-75,共11页International and Comparative Education

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“十四五”规划2021年度教育学重大项目“未来学校组织形态与制度重构的理论与实践研究”(项目编号:VFA210006)。

摘　　要：《回到教育的未来》是经济合作与发展组织发布的面向2040年未来教育发展的报告。已有研究聚焦于对其“四幅图景”的内容性描绘与批判,缺乏底层逻辑反思。通过分析报告中未来观与方法论的转变发现:西方未来教育观早已摆脱未来宿命论和不可知论,转向前瞻性未来思维范式;报告使用的“情景分析法”是典型的前瞻性研究工具,其目的并非描绘静态的未来学校图景,而是以“未来图景”为对话对象与思维支架,以期更好地理解当下及变革的风险。因此,解读本报告时需要转换认识论范式,理解“四幅图景”的创制思路、了解图景背后的潜在驱动力、模型构建的内在逻辑、可能性风险与问题等。如此,才能真正把握其要义。"Back to the Future of Education"is a forward-looking report released by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD),aimed at envisioning the future of education development towards 2040.Current studies have focused on descriptive and critical analyses of its"four scenarios",lacking underlying logical reflections.From the perspective of futures studies,this research analyzes the shift in future perspectives and methodologies in the report.The study found that:Frist,western views on future education is beyond determinism and agnosticism,and turn towards the paradigm of prospective research;Second,the scenario analysis method used in the report is a classic tool of such paradigm which aimed not at depicting static future school scenarios but at using"future scenarios"as a possibility for dialogue and thinking tool towards future.Therefore,to deeply understand this report requires a shift of epistemological paradigms,and further interpret the design logic behind the"four scenarios",analyzing the underlying driving forces,the systematic thinking of model construction,and inherent potential risks and issues.Only through this can we truly understand the significance of this report.

关 键 词：经济合作与发展组织 未来教育 前瞻性未来 情景分析法 

分 类 号：G40-059.3[文化科学—教育学原理]