货币政策的可预期性对公司资本成本的传导——基于银行信贷渠道分析  

The Transmission from Predictability of Monetary Policy to the Cost of Capital of Firms:Based on the Analysis of Bank Credit Channels

作　　者：李宏[1] 周新程 LI Hong;ZHOU Xincheng(School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2024年第10期42-54,共13页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：在面对全球流动性环境变化、地缘政治紧张局势频现、经济转型期国内有效需求不足等挑战时,我国央行不断适时演进货币政策框架,充实并灵活采用多种货币政策工具,着力营造良好的货币金融环境,支持实体经济的稳定与发展。在央行推动货币政策框架日益完善并动态迭代的过程中,货币政策对企业融资成本的影响程度与金融市场对货币政策的可预期性有关联。本文发现货币政策的可预期性降低会减少银行金融机构信贷余额,增加金融机构人民币贷款加权平均利率,最终导致公司债务成本和股权成本增加;同时还发现规模越小、投资水平越高、企业股权集中度越高的公司,货币政策的可预期性对其资本成本的相关影响越小。央行可以通过进一步提高货币政策框架和具体措施制定的透明度,提高央行和公众在信息理解上的一致性,增加市场对货币政策的可预期性。同时监管部门应高度重视银行在货币政策可预期性向实体经济传导过程中的关键作用,尤其是在信贷渠道方面,以更好地检测和应对货币政策可预期性带来的影响。In the face of challenges such as the global liquidity environment,geopolitical tensions,and insufficient effective domestic demand during the economic transition period,China's central bank has continuously evolved its monetary policy framework in a timely manner,enriched and fexibly adopted a variety of monetary policy tools,and create a good monetary and financial environment to support the stability and development of the real economy.In the process of the central bank promoting the improvement and dynamic iteration of the monetary policy framework,the degree of monetary policy impacts on the financing cost of enterprises is related to the predictability of monetary policy.This paper finds that the decrease in the predictability of monetary policy will reduce the credit balance of banks and financial institutions,increase the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans of financial institutions,and ultimately lead to an increase in the cost of corporate debt and equity.At the same time,it is also found that the smaller the company,the higher the investment level,and the higher the concentration of corporate equity,the less the predictability of monetary policy will have a related impact on its cost of capital.By further improving the transparency of the monetary policy framework and the formulation of specific measures,the central bank can improve the consistency of information between the central bank and the public,and increase the predictability of monetary policy.At the same time,the regulator should attach great importance to the key role of banks in the transmission of monetary policy predictability to the real economy,especially in terms of credit channels,so as to better detect and respond to the impact of monetary policy predictability.

关 键 词：货币政策的可预期性 公司资本成本 银行信贷渠道 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F832.4[经济管理—国民经济] F822.0