2010—2023年黄河口地区NDVI时空变化及驱动力分析  

Spatial-temporal variation and driving force analysis of NDVI in the Yellow River estuary area from 2010 to 2023

作　　者：李佳瑢 季民[1] 靳奉祥[1] 张春生 LI Jiarong;JI Min;JIN Fengxiang;ZHANG Chunsheng(Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao,Shandong 266590,China;Qingdao Real Estate Registration Center,Qingdao,Shandong 266002,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学,山东青岛266590 [2]青岛市不动产登记中心,山东青岛266002

出　　处：《测绘科学》2024年第9期81-91,共11页Science of Surveying and Mapping

摘　　要：针对黄河口地区植被覆盖的时空变化以及对生态环境的影响,通过近14 a的黄河口的MODIS数据,运用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析+Mann-Kendall检验、最优参数地理探测器和Hurst指数,多时空尺度探讨了黄河口NDVI时空变化规律及其驱动力。结果表明:①14 a来,黄河口地区NDVI整体呈现稳定的波动模式。在空间分布上,河口区最低,而东营区和垦利县等地相对较高,显示出从河口向两岸递增的趋势;②单因子分析显示,二氧化硫年均值和空气质量指数是影响NDVI的重要环境因素。此外,日照时间与二氧化硫的交互作用在影响NDVI方面表现尤为显著,表明自然条件与人为排放的复合效应显著影响植被分布和健康状况;③Hurst指数分析显示,黄河口大部分地区植被未来发展趋势为同向持续性,但河口区等部分区域仍存在退化风险。研究可为黄河口地区植被变化提供科学依据,为该地区的生态保护和资源管理提供决策支持,具有重要的环境保护和社会经济价值。Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)is widely used to monitor and analyze the spatiotemporal changes of vegetation cover and its ecological responses.To study the spatial and temporal changes in vegetation cover in the Yellow River Estuary and their impact on the ecological environment.This study uses MODIS data from the Yellow River Estuary over the past 14 years,combing Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test optimal parameter geographic detector,and Hurst exponent to explore the spatiotemporal variations of NDVI and its driving forces at multiple scales.The results indicated:1)Over the past 14 years,the NDVI in the Yellow River Estuary showed a stable fluctuation pattern.Spatially,the NDVI was lowest in the estuary area and gradually increased towards areas like Dongying and Kenli County on both sides of the river.2)Single-factor analysis indicated that the annual average of sulfur dioxide and the air quality index were important environmental factors affecting NDVI.Additionally,the interaction between sunshine duration and sulfur dioxide had a significant impact on NDVI,indicating that the combined effects of natural conditions and anthropogenic emissions significantly affected vegetation distribution and health.3)Through Hurst exponent analysis,the future development trend of vegetation in the Yellow River Estuary was predicted.Most areas showed persistent trends,although there was still a risk of degradation in some areas,such as the estuary.This study provides a scientific basis for understanding vegetation changes in the Yellow River Estuary,and decision-making support for ecological protection and resource management in the region,with important environmental protection and socio-economic value.

关 键 词：NDVI Theil-Sen Median趋势分析 MANN-KENDALL检验 最优参数地理探测器 黄河口 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学] X173[环境科学与工程—环境科学]