“21世纪海上丝绸之路”国家投资安全风险量化评估  

Quantitative assessment of investment security risk in"21st Century Maritime Silk Road"countries

作　　者：马丰原 葛珊珊 张韧[2] 王逸之 MA Fengyuan;GE Shanshan;ZHANG Ren;WANG Yizhi(Jinling Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211169,China;Institute of Meteorology,National University of Defense Technology,Nanjing 211101,China)

机构地区：[1]金陵科技学院,江苏南京211169 [2]国防科技大学气象海洋学院,江苏南京211101

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2024年第6期144-151,共8页Command Control & Simulation

摘　　要：“21世纪海上丝绸之路”是新时代背景下链接中国与全球各国的新型贸易之路,促进亚太一体化发展。随着我国“21世纪海上丝绸之路”国家投资的增多,其安全受大国博弈、地区安全、社会不稳定等因素的影响,给投资安全带来了很大的不确定性,因此合理评估“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线国家安全风险,是保证投资安全的重要基础。从大国影响、国家行为和国家互动角度,综合构建了投资安全风险评价指标体系。针对投资安全风险评估中评估指标的不确定性,提出了直觉模糊集的犹豫度分配函数,改进了直觉模糊集的得分函数和距离测度,并结合TOPSIS方法构建了投资安全风险量化评估模型。对“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线的27个国家的投资安全风险进行实验验证,对比了不同风险偏好下的投资安全风险综合评价值排名,为“21世纪海上丝绸之路”研究提供了决策参考。The"21st Century Maritime Silk Road"is a new trade road linking China and other countries in the world in the new era,promoting the development of Asia Pacific integration.With the increase of China s investment in the"21st Century Maritime Silk Road"countries,its security is influenced by factors such as major country games,regional conflicts,and social instability,and also bringing great uncertainty to investment safety.Therefore,a reasonable assessment of investment security risk of the"21st Century Maritime Silk Road"is an important basis for ensuring investment security.In this paper,the investment security risk assessment index system is constructed comprehensively based on great power influence,state behavior and state interaction.Aiming at the uncertainty of the assessment index,hesitation degree distribution function of institution fuzzy set is established.The score function and distance measure of intuitionistic fuzzy set are improved,and the quantitative assessment model of investment security risk is constructed by combining TOPSIS method.The investment security risk in 27 countries along the"21st Century Maritime Silk Road"was experimentally verified,and the ranking was finally obtained based on different risk attitude of decision maker,which provided reference for the decision-making of the"21st Century Maritime Silk Road".

关 键 词：海上丝绸之路 投资安全风险 直觉模糊集 距离测度 得分函数 

分 类 号：O159[理学—数学] F731[理学—基础数学]