得不偿失:序贯决策中的短视风险漠视  

The loss outweighs the gain:Myopic risk ignorance in sequential decision making

作　　者：陈志琴 马家涛 张雪婷 CHEN Zhiqin;MA Jiatao;ZHANG Xueting(Department of Psychology and Behavioral Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Institute of Psychology,Leiden University,Leiden 2333AK,The Netherlands)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学心理与行为科学系,杭州310058 [2]莱顿大学心理学系,荷兰莱顿2333AK

出　　处：《心理科学进展》2024年第12期1980-1989,共10页Advances in Psychological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72201239)资助。

摘　　要：在日常生活和企业经营中,人们常常因忽视潜在的“高概率、大损失”风险而导致无法挽回的后果。为探究这一现象背后的科学问题,本研究构想首次提出了“短视风险漠视”这一新概念。具体而言,该概念指的是决策者在进行多轮相同或相似决策时,由于短视评估和认知局限,难以准确意识到或评估各决策间的关联性,从而在单轮决策中追求当前增益目标而牺牲全局最优目标,并逐渐忽视长期风险的现象。因此,短视风险漠视态度可以视为序贯决策中的一种特定短视风险态度。序贯决策是指个体、群体或组织为实现最优总目标,按时序进行多次决策,且每次决策相关联的动态决策过程。尽管现实中的决策多为序贯决策,但当前行为决策研究主要集中于单次决策,很少探讨个体在序贯决策中的真实行为模式,这限制了过往研究对短视风险漠视现象的关注与探索。针对这一局限,本研究构想旨在基于序贯决策视角,揭示短视风险漠视现象,明确其表现规律与主要特点。此外,本研究构想还将开发一个特定的研究范式来测量短视风险漠视态度,并从决策过程和决策目标两个维度探究其形成机制。研究成果有望补充和拓展行为决策研究,并为未来序贯决策支持系统的开发提供理论基础。In daily life and business operations,individuals often overlook potential“high-probability,large-loss”risks,leading to irreparable consequences.To explore the underlying scientific issues of this phenomenon,this project introduces the novel concept of"myopic risk ignorance".Specifically,this concept refers to the difficulty decision-makers encounter in accurately perceiving or assessing the interdependencies among repeated similar decisions due to myopic evaluations and cognitive limitations.As a result,driven by the pursuit of immediate gains in individual decisions,decision-makers often sacrifice globally optimal goals and gradually ignore long-term risks.Thus,myopic risk ignorance attitude can be viewed as a specific form of myopic risk attitude within the context of sequential decision making.Sequential decision making characterizes a dynamic process where individuals,groups,or organizations make a series of interconnected decisions over time to achieve an optimal overall goal.Despite the prevalence of sequential decision making in real-life scenarios,current behavioral decision-making research predominantly focuses on one-shot decisions,overlooking genuine behavioral patterns in sequential decision making.This oversight has limited the exploration of myopic risk ignorance.To address this gap,the project aims to reveal the patterns and key characteristics of myopic risk ignorance within the framework of sequential decision making.Furthermore,it will develop a tailored research paradigm to measure attitudes towards myopic risk ignorance and investigate its underlying mechanisms within decision processes and objectives.The findings are expected to complement and broaden the field of behavioral decision-making research and provide a theoretical foundation for the future development of sequential decision support systems.

关 键 词：短视风险漠视 序贯决策 决策过程 决策目标 

分 类 号：B842[哲学宗教—基础心理学]