随机森林模型预测T1期结直肠癌淋巴结转移的初步研究  

Preliminary study on prediction of lymph node metastasis of T1 colorectal cancer by random forest model

作　　者：张伟伟 陈启 翁和语 黄亮 Zhang Weiwei;Chen Qi;Weng Heyu;Huang Liang(Department of Colorectal Surgery,Sir Run Run Hospital,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211100,China;Department of Colorectal Surgery,the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat Sen University,Guangzhou 510655,China)

机构地区：[1]南京医科大学附属逸夫医院肛肠外科,211100 [2]中山大学附属第六医院结直肠肛门外科,广州510655

出　　处：《中华结直肠疾病电子杂志》2024年第5期389-393,共5页Chinese Journal of Colorectal Diseases(Electronic Edition)

基　　金：中山六院临床医学研究计划项目[No.1010CG(2023)-07]。

摘　　要：目的探索T1期结直肠癌淋巴结转移的危险因素,建立预测T1期结直肠癌患者淋巴结转移的随机森林模型。方法收集2010年8月至2020年6月于中山大学附属第六医院进行根治性手术治疗的280例T1期结直肠癌患者的临床资料,运用R软件建立预测T1期结直肠癌患者淋巴结转移的随机森林模型。结果T1期结直肠癌淋巴结转移发生率为11.07%(31/280)。随机森林模型显示,T1期结直肠癌发生淋巴结转移的危险因素重要性排序为:年龄、脉管神经浸润、肿瘤位置、分化程度、性别、肿瘤大小和Ki67。随机森林模型预测T1期结直肠癌淋巴结转移曲线下面积(AUC)为0.811,最佳阈值是0.072,特异度和敏感度分别为0.703和0.778。结论随机森林模型有助于临床医师快捷地分析T1期结直肠癌淋巴结转移风险,并制定合适的治疗方案。Objective In order to explore the risk factors of lymph node metastasis of stage T1 colorectal cancer and establish a random forest model to predict lymph node metastasis of stage T1 colorectal cancer patients.Methods We collected the clinical data of 280 patients with stage T1 colorectal cancer who underwent radical surgery in the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from August 2010 to June 2020,and established a random forest model to predict lymph node metastasis of stage T1 colorectal cancer patients by R software.Results The incidence of lymph node metastasis in T1 stage colorectal cancer was 11.07%(31/280).The importance ranking of risk factors following the random forest model for lymph node metastasis in stage T1 colorectal cancer was as follows:age,vascular or neural invasion,tumor location,differentiation degree,gender,tumor size,and Ki67 level.The area under the curve(AUC)of our random forest model for lymph node metastasis in stage T1 colorectal cancer was 0.811,with an optimal threshold of 0.072,specificity of 0.703 and sensitivity of 0.778.Conclusion The random forest model is helpful for clinicians to quickly analyze the risk of lymph node metastasis in stage T1 colorectal cancer and make appropriate treatment plans.

关 键 词：结直肠肿瘤 淋巴结转移 危险因素 随机森林模型 

分 类 号：R735.34[医药卫生—肿瘤]