非洲过早“去工业化”国家的识别:经验证据与实证方法  

Identifying and Analyzing Premature Deindustrialization in Africa:Empirical Evidence and Empirical Methods

作　　者：郭浩 赵亚娟 Guo Hao;Zhao Yajuan(the School of Economics,Nankai University;the School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029

出　　处：《区域国别学刊》2024年第6期23-42,153,154,共22页COUNTRY AND AREA STUDIES

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’与南南合作背景下的中非产能合作问题研究”(项目编号:19ZDA063)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：基于非洲国家经济发展的特殊性,本文通过修正参照样本和识别方法,改进了现有识别过早“去工业化”国家的方法,并通过区域异质性修正和观察绝对增长趋势对识别出的过早“去工业化”国家进行排除处理,最终识别确定贝宁等13个非洲过早“去工业化”国家。此外,通过对非洲国家工业发展峰值的时间趋势分析发现:随着时间推移,工业发展与人均收入水平的倒“U”型曲线逐渐下移,即工业化起步越晚的国家,工业发展峰值出现时间越晚,能够达到的工业发展峰值也越低。面对过早“去工业化”国家的制造业产业需求,中国应抓住市场机遇,调整国别选择,基于过早“去工业化”国家的经济发展实际有针对性地开展国际产能合作,实现优势互补和合作共赢。This study addresses the identification of“premature deindustrialization”in African countries,taking into account their unique economic development trajectories.We modify existing identification methods by adjusting reference samples and correcting for regional heterogeneity.Through this improved approach,we identify 13 African countries,including Benin,as experiencing premature deindustrialization.Our analysis of industrial development peak trends in African countries reveals a declining inverted U-shaped relationship between industrial development and per capita income levels over time.This pattern suggests that later industrialization is associated with delayed and lower peaks in industrial development.Furthermore,we examine the implications of these findings for international cooperation,particularly in relation to China’s role.We propose that China should capitalize on market opportunities in countries experiencing premature deindustrialization by strategically adjusting its approach to international production capacity cooperation.This strategy aims to achieve complementarity and mutual benefits.

关 键 词：过早“去工业化” 识别方法 经济增长 产业转移 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]