考虑地表形变和土地利用变更的滑坡时空易发性差异分析  

Analysis of spatial-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility assessment considering surface deformation and land use dynamics

作　　者：张锦瑞 汪洋[2] 冯霄 李远耀 金必晶 周超[3] 张鑫 邓扬 ZHANG Jinrui;WANG Yang;FENG Xiao;LI Yuanyao;JIN Bijing;ZHOU Chao;ZHANG Xin;DENG Yang(Institute of Geological Survey,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;School of Geography and Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)地质调查研究院,武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,武汉430074 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《地质科技通报》2024年第6期184-195,共12页Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42371094,41907253)

摘　　要：为探究移民迁建城区受人类工程活动影响而产生的滑坡易发性时空变化,以三峡库区云阳县新城区为例,引入滑坡易发性时变指标因子进行滑坡时空易发性差异制图,从而探究迁建城区在城镇化过程中滑坡灾害的时空演化规律。选择Stacking集成模型作为静态易发性评价模型;选取2017年1月16日-2018年8月27日(T1)、2018年9月20日-2021年7月30日(T2)、2021年8月23日-2023年11月17日(T3)3个不同时间跨度的InSAR形变速率和土地利用类型作为时变因子;将时变因子与静态评价结果结合,绘制了不同时间段的易发性差异分布图。研究表明,引入时变因子进行滑坡时空易发性差异分析可以有效反映城市化对滑坡灾害的影响,研究区土地类型由非工程用地转变为工程用地时,滑坡易发性等级普遍上升,2个变化阶段中栅格占比分别为61.3%和67.1%。城区所选典型滑坡的InSAR位移时序曲线的变化趋势与土地类型转变具有较高的时空相关性,进一步验证了该方法的可靠性。本研究提出的研究思路能够在三峡库区移民迁建城区城市化进程中提供有效的防灾减灾依据和区域规划手段。[Objective]To investigate the spatial-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility due to human engi-neering activities in resettled urban areas.[Methods]This study focuses on the new urban area of Yunyang Coun-ty in the Three Gorges Reservoir region.Landslide susceptibility time-varying index factors were introduced to map spatial-temporal susceptibility differences and explore the spatial-temporal evolution of landslide disasters during ur-banization in resettled urban areas.First,the stacking ensemble model was selected as the static susceptibility eval-uation model.Then,the InSAR deformation rates and land use types over three distinct time spans(namely,Janu-ary 16,2017,to August 27,2018(T1),September 20,2018,to July 30,2021(T2),and August 23,2021,to November 17,2023(T3))were selected as time-varying factors.Last,the time-varying factors were combined with the static evaluation results to create susceptibility difference distribution maps for the different periods.[Re-sults]The study revealed that introducing time-varying factors in the analysis of spatial-temporal susceptibility differences effectively reflects the impact of urbanization on landslide disasters.When the land type in the study ar-ea changed from non-engineering land to engineering land,the landslide susceptibility level generally increased,with grid shares of 61.3%and 67.1%in the two change stages,respectively.The temporal trends of the InSAR displacement time series curves for selected typical landslides in urban areas showed high spatial-temporal correla-tions with land type changes,further validating the reliability of this method.[Conclusion]The proposed research approach provides the basis for disaster prevention,mitigation,and regional planning during the urbanization process in resettled urban areas of the Three Gorges Reservoir region.

关 键 词：移民迁建城区 滑坡易发性 土地利用类型 INSAR 滑坡时空易发性差异分析 地表形变 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学] P642.26[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]