民用机场飞行区风险因素及耦合关系分析  

Analysis on Risk Factor and Coupling Relationship in Flight Area of Civil Airport

作　　者：张欣 葛昊 段续庭[1] 赵一翰 ZHANG Xin;GE Hao;DUAN Xuting;ZHAO Yihan(School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;The 28th Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学交通科学与工程学院,北京100191 [2]中国电子科技集团公司第二十八研究所,南京210023

出　　处：《指挥信息系统与技术》2024年第5期44-52,共9页Command Information System and Technology

基　　金：空中交通管理系统与技术国家重点实验室开放基金(SKLATM202103)资助项目。

摘　　要：为提高民用机场安全管理水平,需对机场飞行区安全风险因素及其耦合关系进行分析。将民用机场飞行区风险因素分为人员因素、设施设备因素和环境因素,并根据风险因素的数量和种类,将耦合风险划分为单因素耦合风险、双因素耦合风险和多因素耦合风险。基于系统动力学模型定性分析了同质和异质风险因素间的相互关系,建立了风险耦合模型。采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法对风险因素进行了定量分析,生成了风险因素关联系数。计算得出的评判风险阈值,可为机场管理部门及时发现风险和解决问题提供依据。In order to improve the safety management level of civil airport,it is necessary to analyze the safety risk factors and their coupling relations in the flight area of airport.The risk factors of the flight area of civil airport are divided into the personnel factor,the facilities and equipment factor and the environmental factor.The coupling risks are divided into the single-factor coupling risk,the dualfactor coupling risk and the multi-factor coupling risk according the number and type of risk factors.Based on the system dynamics model,the relationship between homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors is qualitatively analyzed,and the risk coupling model is established.The risk factors are quanti⁃tatively analyzed by the Monte Carlo simulation method,and the correlation coefficient of risk factors is generated.The risk threshold is calculated to provide a basis for airport management to find risks and solve problems in time.

关 键 词：风险因素 耦合关系 系统动力学模型 蒙特卡洛模拟 机场安全管理 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]