新疆能源消费与经济增长的脱钩效应及驱动因素分解  

Decoupling effect of energy consumption and economic growth in Xinjiang and decomposition of driving factors

作　　者：杨迪 陈学刚[2] YANG Di;CHEN Xuegang(Business School,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830017,China;School of Geographical Science and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学商学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830017 [2]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2024年第10期86-94,共9页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区科学基金资助项目(41861033);新疆师范大学丝绸之路经济带城市发展研究中心招标课题资助项目(XJNURWJD062017B04)。

摘　　要：能源问题是当前全球关注的热点问题,保持能源消耗和经济增长之间的合理平衡,是实现可持续发展的关键。采用Tapio脱钩模型计算了2000—2021年新疆地区能源消费总量与GDP的弹性脱钩系数,研究结果表明,长期内能源消费与经济增长之间存在一种拓张连结的状态,但在短期中脱钩弹性系数存在较大波动幅度。通过对新疆煤炭、石油、天然气和电力能源分别进行了脱钩状态的研究,发现电力能源与煤炭是推动经济增长的第一、第二的主导产业,石油与天然气的消费量与经济增长的脱钩状态较为理想。进一步采用对数平均迪氏指数分解模型(LMDI)对新疆地区能源消费的驱动因素进行研究,得出产业结构效应是减少能源消费的主导因素,其中导致能源消费增加最重要的两个因素分别为投资效应和劳动力效应,能源强度对能源消费增长的影响最小。通过研究为新疆能源经济健康发展与绿色改革提供了一定的理论依据和建议。Energy is a hot issue in the world at present.Maintaining an appropriate balance between energy consumption and economic growth is paramount to ensuring sustainable development.This paper uses the Tapio decoupling model to calculate the coefficient of elastic decoupling between aggregate energy consumption.and GDP in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2021.The research results show that there is an extended link between energy consumption and economic growth in the long run,but the decoupling elasticity coefficient has a large fluctuation range in the short run.This paper also studies the decoupling status of coal,oil,natural gas and electric energy in Xinjiang,and finds that electric energy and coal are the first and second leading industries to promote economic growth,and the decoupling status of oil and natural gas consumption and economic growth is relatively ideal.This paper further uses LMDI decomposition method to study the driving factors of energy consumption in Xinjiang,and concludes that industrial structure effect is the leading factor to reduce energy consumption,among which the two most important factors leading to the increase of energy consumption are investment effect and labor force effect,and energy intensity has the least impact on the growth of energy consumption.The research provides some theoretical basis and suggestions for the healthy development of Xinjiang’s energy economy and green reform.

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 对数平均迪氏指数分解模型 脱钩效应 驱动因素 

分 类 号：F276[经济管理—企业管理] F416.21[经济管理—国民经济]