实体经济发展、数字经济赋能与大学生就业市场变动——来自招聘网站大数据的经验证据  

Real Economy Development,Digital Economy Empowerment and the Dynamics of University Graduates'Employment Market

作　　者：毛宇飞 曾湘泉[2] 胡文馨 Mao Yufei;Zeng Xiangquan;Hu Wenxin

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院 [2]中国人民大学劳动人事学院 [3]北京石油化工学院经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2024年第6期22-39,共18页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“大数据视角下产业数字化转型对职业技能需求变动的影响研究”(编号:22CJY012)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：近年来,实体经济在经历重大公共卫生事件冲击后逐渐复苏,并不断与数字经济融合,对大学生就业市场产生了深远影响。文章利用智联招聘网络大数据,实证检验了实体经济、数字经济及二者融合发展对大学生就业市场的影响。研究表明:实体经济复苏初期,企业新增招聘需求减弱,大学生延缓就业使得供给下降;在政策积极干预下,需求侧降幅小于供给侧,就业市场景气指数上升。随着数实协同赋能与深度融合,大学生就业市场的供需两侧均发生积极变化,且在不同行业、地区、城市相应变化呈现异质性。数实融合通过促进经济增长和消费需求增加、提高劳动生产率、扩大企业招聘需求等机制,从而提升大学生就业市场的景气程度。从较长期来看,实体经济复苏带动了大学生就业供需两侧增长,特别是在数实融合趋势下,其推动需求增长的动力更为强劲,从而促进了大学生就业。文章结论有助于深刻理解数实融合带来的大学生就业效应,为精准设计就业促进政策、从供需两侧助力大学生实现高质量充分就业提供依据。Using the big data from Zhaopin.com,this study examines the impacts of real and digital economy developments and their integrations on the college graduates'job market.The research shows that in the early stage of the real economy recovery,both enterprise recruitment demand and college graduates supply decrease.Policy intervention boosts the demand more than the supply,promoting job market prosperity.The synergistic empowerment and deep integration of the digital and real economies have a positive impact on both the employment supply and demand of college graduates,which shows significant heterogeneity across different industries and regions.The digital-real economy integration promotes job market prosperity through the mechanisms such as boosting industrial growth,enhancing production efficiency,and stimulating recruitment demand.In the long term,the integrated development of the digital and real economies has a positive impact on the college graduates'job market.This paper provides an empirical basis for understanding the effect of digital-real integration on college graduates'job market and guiding employment promotion policy design.

关 键 词：实体经济 数字经济 大学生就业 数实融合 招聘大数据 

分 类 号：G647.38[文化科学—高等教育学] F124[文化科学—教育学] F49[经济管理—世界经济] F249.2