基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的2023—2027年闵行区脑卒中死亡趋势预测  

Predicting the death trend of stroke in Minhang District,Shanghai from 2023 to 2027 based on grey GM(1,1)model

作　　者：陈林利[1] 轩水丽 倪静宜 郭佳旗 刘薇 许慧琳[1] 周毅彬 CHEN Lin-li;XUAN Shui-li;NI Jing-yi;GUO Jia-qi;LIU Wei;XU Hui-lin;ZHOU Yi-bin(Department of Information Management,Shanghai Minhang Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Shanghai 201101,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市闵行区疾病预防控制中心信息管理科,上海201101

出　　处：《复旦学报（医学版）》2024年第6期915-920,930,共7页Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences

基　　金：上海市闵行区自然科学研究课题(2022MHZ011);上海市闵行区公共卫生重点学科建设项目(MGWXK2023-11)。

摘　　要：目的分析2012—2022年上海市闵行区脑卒中死亡变化趋势,预测2023—2027年脑卒中死亡情况。方法测算2012—2022年上海市闵行区脑卒中死亡的年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC),运用Joinpoint线性回归模型进行时间趋势分析。以2012—2022年上海市闵行区脑卒中死亡率构建灰色GM(1,1)模型,运用相对误差和级比偏差评估模型拟合效果,对2023—2027年上海市闵行区脑卒中死亡率进行预测分析。结果2012—2022年上海市闵行区脑卒中全人群、男性和女性粗死亡率均呈上升趋势(全人群:APC=2.50%,P<0.001;男性:APC=3.41%,P<0.001;女性:APC=1.46%,P=0.008)。灰色GM(1,1)模型预测2023—2027年上海市闵行区脑卒中死亡率呈上升趋势,2027年全人群脑卒中粗死亡率为97.55/10万,男性为112.31/10万,女性为83.33/10万,检验评估模型拟合效果达到较高要求。结论近十年来上海市闵行区脑卒中死亡率呈明显上升趋势,5年预测结果显示死亡率呈逐年上升趋势。Objective To study the trend of stroke mortality in Minhang District,Shanghai from 2012 to 2022 and to predict stroke mortality from 2023 to 2027.Methods Annual percentage change(APC)of stroke deaths in Minhang District,Shanghai from 2012 to 2022 was calculated,and then Joinpoint linear regression model was used to analyze the time trend of stroke deaths.A grey GM(1,1)model was constructed based on the stroke mortality rate in Minhang District,Shanghai from 2012 to 2022.The model was used to predict and analyze the stroke mortality rate in Minhang District,Shanghai from 2023 to 2027.The fitting effect of the model was evaluated using relative error and grade deviation.Results From 2012 to 2022,the overall mortality rate of stroke in Minhang District,Shanghai was on the rise for both males and females(total population:APC=2.50%,P<0.001;male:APC=3.41%,P<0.001;female:APC=1.46%,P=0.008).The grey GM(1,1)model was used to predict the increasing trend of stroke mortality rate in Minhang District from 2023 to 2027.The crude mortality rate of stroke in the entire population in 2027 would be 97.55/100000,with 112.31/100000 for males and 83.33/100000 for females.The fitting effect of the model was tested and evaluated to meet high requirements.Conclusion In the past decade,the mortality rate of stroke in Minhang District,Shanghai has shown a significant upward trend.The 5-year prediction results showed that the mortality rate will still on the rise year by year.

关 键 词：脑卒中 死亡趋势 预测 灰色GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：R743.3[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学] R195.4[医药卫生—临床医学]