面向2035:基于我国学龄人口变动的高等教育资源需求预测及配置策略  

Towards 2035:Forecast and Allocation Strategies for Higher Education Resource Demand Based on Changes in School-age Population

作　　者：任增元[1] 高静 陶禹廷 REN Zengyuan;GAO Jing;TAO Yuting

机构地区：[1]吉林大学高等教育研究所,长春130012 [2]吉林大学马克思主义学院,长春130012

出　　处：《大学教育科学》2024年第6期14-24,共11页University Education Science

基　　金：2021年度教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“‘破五唯’:高校学术评价改革的实践与制度优化研究”(21YJA880053);2023年吉林大学推进一流学科和一流大学建设研究课题“中国式高等教育现代化视野中的学科交叉融合使命与制度优化研究”(2023SYLZ01);2022年度吉林大学校本应用专题研究项目“‘双一流’背景下研究生教育高质量发展的若干问题研究”(2022XB03)。

摘　　要：2024年9月的全国教育大会确定了“到2035年建成教育强国”的目标。为了更好地实现这一目标,就要分析我国从现在到2035年前后的学龄人口状况以及相应的资源政策和发展规划。基于官方数据对我国2024-2040年高等教育学龄人口规模和资源配置情况进行预测发现,未来我国高等教育在学总规模将呈现倒“U”形发展趋势,社会对办学资源的需求不再是单调递增,高等教育资源的调配任务将比以往更加艰巨。按照预测,2035年前后我国高等教育将出现资源需求波峰,波峰期相对于2023年需要增加108.33万名普通高校专任教师。而到2040年,我国普通高校专任教师的需求将减少83.75万人,高等教育总投入将减少6461.34亿元,高校校舍建筑面积需求将减少53652万平方米,高校教学科研仪器设备值需求将减少877.56亿元。基于对高等教育资源配置的动态需求,可采用以下优化路径:“生源充足时期”应抓住历史机遇,做好高等教育多样化改革试验;“持续攀升时期”应多措并举保持原有特色与缓解供需矛盾;“急剧缩减时期”应落实精简优化的战略方针,通过充分挖掘高校自身人才培养潜力、适时缩减办学规模等方式来积极应对未来人口之变;“战略机遇时期”应瞄准建成教育强国的战略目标进行资源配置,正确处理支撑国家战略与满足民生需求等重大关系。The National Education Conference in September 2024 set the goal of“building a powerful country in education by 2035”.In order to achieve this goal better,it is necessary to analyze the situation of the school-age population from now until around 2035 and the corresponding resource policies and development plans.Based on official data,this paper predicts the scale of higher education school-age population and the resource allocation situation from 2024 to 2040.It is found that the total scale of higher education in the future will show an inverted“U”shape development trend and the social demand for school-running resources will no longer increase monotonously,and the task of allocating higher education resources will be more challenging than before.According to the forecast,there will be a peak in resource demand for higher education in China around 2035.For example,compared with 2023,1,083,300 full-time teachers for regular higher education institutions must be added in the peak year.But by 2040,compared with the peak,the demand for full-time teachers for regular higher education institutions in China will decrease by 837,500,the total investment in higher education will be reduced by 646.134 billion yuan,the demand for university building area will be reduced by 53,652 million square meters,and the demand for teaching and scientific research instruments will be reduced by 87.756 billion yuan.Based on the dynamic demand for higher education resources allocation,the following optimization pathways are proposed:during the“period with abundant students”,it is essential to seize historical opportunities to carry out reform experiments to promote the diversification of higher education;during the“continuous rising period”,it is necessary to take multiple measures to maintain original characteristics and alleviate supply-demand conflicts;during the“sharp decline period”,it is supposed to implement strategies for streamlining and optimization,so as to respond positively to future population changes

关 键 词：人口变动 高等教育学龄人口 高等教育规模 高等教育资源配置 

分 类 号：G640[文化科学—高等教育学]