基于CMIP6气候模式的河南省未来夏季极端降水的情景预估  

Scenario Projection of Future Extreme Summer Precipitation in Henan Province Based on CMIP6 Climate Models

作　　者：姚德贵 黎玥君 刘善峰 赵灿 周放[4] Yao Degui;Li Yuejun;Liu Shanfeng;Zhao Can;Zhou Fang(Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid Henan Electric Power Company,Zhengzhou 450052,China;Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Science,Hangzhou 310008,China;Shanxi Climate Center,Xi'an 710004,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院,郑州450052 [2]浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州310008 [3]陕西省气候中心,西安710004 [4]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044

出　　处：《科技通报》2024年第11期9-18,共10页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2023-JC-QN-0340)。

摘　　要：本文基于CN05.1格点降水数据、耦合模式第6次比较计划(CMIP6)中的19个全球气候模式数据,对SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5情景下河南省夏季未来极端降水变化进行预估。结果表明:(1)CMIP6模式能够准确抓住河南省夏季南多北少的降水格局和标准差的空间分布特征,但强度偏弱。(2)未来气候预估中,河南省夏季降水日数在东北部地区具有较大增幅,但高强迫情景下的增幅明显小于低强迫情景。而降水量和降水强度随着人为辐射强迫的增加则明显增强,这表明未来河南省夏季降水的空间格局将逐渐由南多北少向北多南少转变,且降水的极端性会更加明显。(3)4种情景下,河南省未来暴雨日数和极端降水量随时间均明显增多,且相同时间段内高强迫情景的增幅明显大于低强迫情景。其中,暴雨日数增幅区域主要位于河南省东北部、西南至中部地区以及东南部地区,极端降水量则在河南省东北部地区增幅最大。Based on the CN05.1 grid precipitation data,historical climate simulation data from 19 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),and future scenario projection data,the future summer extreme precipitation variation in Henan under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were estimated.The results indicate that:(1)The CMIP6 model can accurately capture the spatial distribution of climatological mean precipitation patterns and standard deviations in Henan Province during summer,with more precipitation in the south and less precipitation in the north,but its intensity is relatively weak.(2)In future projection,the number of summer precipitation days in Henan Province has a significant increase in the northeast region,but the increase under high scenarios is significantly smaller than that under low scenarios.The precipitation and intensity increase significantly with the increase of human radiation forcing,indicating that the spatial pattern of summer precipitation in Henan Province will gradually shift from more in the south and less in the north to more in the north and less in the south,and the extreme precipitation will become more apparent.(3)Under the four scenarios,the number of future rainstorm days and the extreme precipitation in Henan all increase significantly withtime,and the increase in the high scenario is significantly greater than that in the low scenario in the same time period.Among them,the increase area of rainstorm days is mainly located in the northeast,southwest to central and southeastregions of Henan Province,and the increase area of extreme precipitation is the largest in the northeast region of HenanProvince.

关 键 词：夏季极端降水 CMIP6 未来预估 河南省 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]