警务检查活动对盗窃犯罪的空间影响研究——以浙江海宁市为例  

Spatial influence of police inspection activities on theft crimes:A case study in Haining City,Zhejiang

作　　者：赵锃泽 刘大千[2] 郑滋椀 陈鹏[1] 汪城 ZHAO Zengze;LIU Daqian;ZHENG Ziwan;CHEN Peng;WANG Cheng(School for Information and Network Security,People's Public Security University of China,Beijing 102600,China;Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology,CAS,Changchun 130102,China;School of Big-data and Network Security,Zhejiang Police College,Hangzhou 310053,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学信息网络安全学院,北京102600 [2]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春130102 [3]浙江警察学院大数据与网络安全研究院,杭州310053

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2024年第11期2298-2311,共14页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171236,41901160);中国人民公安大学基本科研业务费项目(2024JKF04,2023JKF01ZK12)。

摘　　要：作为犯罪防控的主体,警务部门的活动对犯罪活动的空间态势具有重要影响。论文以浙江省海宁市2019年5—12月警务检查活动数据与盗窃犯罪数据为研究对象,以网格为分析单元,运用核密度估计、空间自相关分析等方法分析了警务检查与盗窃犯罪的空间分布特征,构建空间回归模型分析了普通治安检查、公共复杂行业检查和重点单位检查等不同类型的警务检查活动对盗窃犯罪的影响。结果显示:①警务检查活动与盗窃犯罪在空间上均表现为聚集性特征,且两者热点区域存在部分重合,其中普通治安检查、公共复杂行业检查和重点单位检查的分布大致相同,但又存在一定的差异;②公共复杂行业检查及重点单位检查活动与盗窃犯罪呈显著负相关关系,而普通治安检查与盗窃犯罪呈显著正相关关系;③邻近地区的普通治安检查与本地区盗窃犯罪呈显著正相关关系。研究结果表明:公共复杂行业检查与重点单位检查对盗窃犯罪有显著的抑制作用,邻近地区的普通治安检查可能会导致犯罪转移现象。本研究对于厘清警务活动与犯罪之间的关系、评估警务活动的犯罪防控效益具有一定的借鉴意义。As the main actor in crime prevention and control,the activities of the police department have an important impact on the spatial trend of criminal activities.This study focused on the police inspection activity data and theft crime data from May to December 2019 in Haining City of Zhangjiang Province.Grids were employed as the spatial units of analysis,and the study used kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis to examine the spatial distribution characteristics of police inspections and theft crimes.Additionally,a spatial regression model was constructed to analyze the impact of different types of police inspections,including routine security checks,inspections of public complex industries,and inspections of key units,on theft crimes.The findings are as follows:1)Both police inspections and theft crimes exhibited spatial clustering characteristics,with some overlap in hotspot areas.While the spatial distributions of routine security checks,inspections of public complex industries,and inspections of key units were generally similar,there existed certain differences.2)Inspections of public complex industries and key units were significantly negatively correlated with theft crimes,whereas routine security checks showed a significant positive correlation with theft crimes.3)Routine security checks in adjacent areas were significantly positively correlated with theft crimes in the local area,suggesting a potential phenomenon of crime site displacement.These results suggest that inspections of public complex industries and key units played a significant inhibitory role in theft crimes,while routine security checks may lead to crime site displacement.The conclusions of this study provide significant reference value for clarifying the relationship between police activities and crime,as well as for assessing the effectiveness of police activities in crime prevention and control.

关 键 词：犯罪地理 警务检查活动 盗窃犯罪 空间杜宾误差模型 

分 类 号：D631.2[政治法律—政治学] D917[政治法律—中外政治制度] D924.35