高速公路货车换道冲突预测及其影响因素分析  

Traffic conflict prediction and influencing factors analysis of truck lane change on expressway

作　　者：温惠英[1] 何梓琦 李秋灵 赵胜 WEN Hui-ying;HE Zi-qi;LI Qiu-ling;ZHAO Sheng(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广州510641

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2024年第10期2827-2836,共10页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52172345)。

摘　　要：为研究高速公路上货车的换道冲突特性,降低高速公路货车的换道风险,本文对货车换道行为特征中引发交通冲突的显著因素进行了研究。首先综合考虑时间和空间维度的交通冲突度量指标,提出了货车交通冲突的判定指标,对高速公路上货车换道过程中的交通冲突样本进行了提取;其次基于XGBoost算法对货车换道冲突进行预测并与随机森林(RF)和梯度提升树(GBDT)算法的性能进行对比;最后利用SHAP算法研究了货车的换道特征、车辆间的相对运动状态和交通流因素对货车换道冲突的影响。研究表明:XGBoost模型的预测效果更优,该模型预测货车换道冲突的准确率和F1-score分别为83.87%和84.85%,且货车的换道安全性受原车道和目标车道前车运动状态的影响较大,冲突的发生与货车长度和路段每分钟的交通量呈负相关;在多因素交互影响下,当路段每分钟交通量大于70 pcu时,货车换道时发生冲突的概率随着交通流中货车比例的增加而增大;当车辆长度小于8 m时,货车发生冲突的可能性与沿车道线方向速度呈正相关。In order to study the characteristics of lane changing conflicts involving trucks on the expressway,reduce the risk,and explore the significant factors that cause traffic conflicts among lane changing behaviors of trucks.Firstly,this paper considered the traffic conflict measurement indicators of time and space dimensions,proposed judgment indexes,and used the extracted traffic conflict indexes as a category of samples in the conflict prediction model.Secondly,the XGBoost algorithm was adopted to build the prediction model,and its performance was compared with the Random Forest(RF)and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT)algorithms.Finally,the SHAP algorithm was used to study the impact of traffic conflicts on truck lane changes,including the lane changing characteristics of trucks,the relative motion state between different vehicles,and traffic flow.The results show that the XGBoost model has a better prediction effect,with an accuracy and F1-score of 83.87% and 84.85%,respectively.The lane changing safety of trucks is greatly affected by the motion status of the preceding vehicle in the original and target lanes,and the occurrence of collision is negatively correlated with the vehicle length and traffic volume of the road section per minute.Under the interaction of multiple factors,when the traffic volume of a section is more than 70 pcu per minute,the probability of collision when trucks change lanes increases with the increase of the proportion of trucks in the traffic flow.When the vehicle length is less than 8 m,the possibility of truck collision is positively correlated with the speed along the lane line.

关 键 词：交通工程 高速公路 货车换道行为 冲突预测 XGBoost 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]