因果推断及其在国防领域的应用研究——以美国DARPA因果推断智能项目为例  

Causal Inference and Its Application in the Field of National Defense:Taking DARPA Causal Inference Intelligence Project in the United States as an Example

作　　者：任前前 白如江[1] 陈鑫[1] 刘睿琳 REN QianQian;BAI RuJiang;CHEN Xin;LIU RuiLin(School of Information Management,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255049,P.R.China;Faculty of Informatics,University of Toronto,Toronto M5S3G6,Canada)

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学信息管理学院,淄博255049 [2]多伦多大学信息学院,多伦多M5S3G6

出　　处：《数字图书馆论坛》2024年第10期22-32,共11页Digital Library Forum

基　　金：山东省哲学社会科学青年人才团队“面向国家安全的多源数据智慧情报感知研究”(编号:2023-zkzd-061)资助。

摘　　要：受科技迅猛发展、作战环境变化等因素的影响,国防建设过程面临前所未有的复杂性,如何辅助决策者更准确地理解复杂系统要素之间的因果逻辑,进一步巩固和提升国防建设水平是国防领域的重要议题之一。在阐述鲁宾因果模型和结构因果模型等因果知识的基础上,以美国国防高级研究计划局(Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency,DARPA)实施的一系列因果推断智能项目为例,分析因果推断在国防建设中的重要价值与具体应用场景。结合因果推断智能项目的趋势分析,探讨对我国国防建设的启示与建议。研究表明,因果推断在提升国防决策准确性与可解释性方面具有独特优势,未来应正视并积极引入因果推断,重视数据资源建设,提升技术智能化水平,加强监督管理,加快因果推断在国防建设中的应用。Affected by the rapid development of technology and changes in the combat environment,the process of national defense construction is facing unprecedented complexity.How to assist decision-makers in more accurately understanding the causal logic between complex system elements,and further consolidate and improve the level of national defense construction is one of the important issues in the field of national defense.Based on the elaboration of causal knowledge such as Rubin causal model and structural causal model,this study takes a series of causal inference intelligence projects carried out by Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency(DARPA)in the United States as an example to analyze the important value and specific application scenarios of causal inference in national defense construction.Combining the trends of causal inference intelligence projects,this article explores the inspirations and suggestions for China’s national defense construction.Research has shown that causal inference has unique advantages in improving the accuracy and interpretability of national defense decisions.In the future,it is necessary to face up to and actively introduce causal inference,attach importance to data resource construction,enhance the level of technological intelligence,strengthen supervision and management,and accelerate the application of causal inference in national defense construction.

关 键 词：因果推断 国防建设 美国 国防高级研究计划局 鲁宾因果模型 结构因果模型 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]