基于主体建模和改进FCM的服务区多能源负荷预测  

Multi-energy Load Forecasting in Highway Service Area Based on Agent Modeling and Improved FCM

作　　者：王宁玲[1] 曲椿煜 杨超云 王家奇 WANG Ningling;QU Chunyu;YANG Chaoyun;WANG Jiaqi(School of Energy Power and Mechanical Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院,北京102206

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第6期67-75,共9页Journal of North China Electric Power University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：公路交通多能变换装备优化集成系统自洽运行评估与应用示范(2021YFB2601405-03);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52090064).

摘　　要：公路服务区生活建筑的多能源负荷特性预测是交通能源自洽一体化系统集成设计和优化调度的难点和核心任务之一。生活建筑的冷热电负荷与所涉及人员的人口分布特性和生活习惯等因素密切相关,具有显著的群体特征。综合考虑服务区群体特征和用能行为特性,基于主体建模方法建立公路服务区生活建筑负荷预测模型;考虑季节与节假日影响,构建公路服务区典型用能场景;应用改进的模糊C均值聚类算法和平均值法提取得到公路服务区生活建筑的冷热电负荷曲线。服务区能源负荷预测案例模拟与校核结果表明,该方法确定的多能源负荷预测精度可满足工程实践需求,为集成系统的规划设计和优化调度提供基础。The multi-energy load forecasting of living buildings in highway service areas is key to the integration design and dispatching optimization of self-consistent transportation energy integration system.The cold,heat and power load of living buildings is of significant group characteristics,closely relating to the population distribution characteristics and energy-consuming behaviors of the people involved.Considering the group characteristics and energy-consumption behavior,we established the load forecasting model of living buildings in the highway service area based on the agent modeling method.Incorporating with the influence of seasons and holidays,we built typical energy consumption scenarios in highway service areas.Then,we applied the improved fuzzy C-mean clustering algorithm and the average value method to extract the cold,heat and power load curves of the living buildings in the highway service area.Finally,the simulation instance of energy load forecasting for a service area shows that the simulation accuracy can meet the requirements of engineering practice and take significant reference for the integration design and dispatching optimization.

关 键 词：公路服务区 主体建模 模糊聚类 典型场景 多能源负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]