基于贝叶斯推理的电力调度设备负荷自动预测方法  

Automatic Load Prediction Method for Power Dispatch Equipment Based on Bayesian Inference

作　　者：石晓蕊 尹红雨 SHI Xiaorui;YIN Hongyu(State Grid Xining Power Supply Company,Xining,Qinghai 810003,China;State Grid Haidong Power Supply Company,Haidong,Qinghai 810600,China)

机构地区：[1]国网西宁供电公司,青海西宁810003 [2]国网海东供电公司,青海海东810600

出　　处：《自动化应用》2024年第23期145-147,共3页Automation Application

摘　　要：电力调度设备负荷受多种因素的影响,这些影响因素之间可能存在相互作用,加大了电力调度设备负荷自动预测的难度。为有效解决该问题,提出了一种新的基于贝叶斯推理的电力调度设备负荷自动预测方法。通过数据清洗与归一化实现电力调度设备运行数据的预处理;通过贝叶斯推理构建了电力调度设备负荷自动预测模型;通过训练预测模型实现了电力调度设备负荷的自动预测。结果表明,基于贝叶斯推理的电力调度设备负荷自动预测方法能准确预测出电力调度设备的负荷数值,实际应用效果好。The load of power dispatch equipment is influenced by various factors,and there may be interactions between these influencing factors,which increases the difficulty of automatic load prediction of power dispatch equipment.In order to effectively solve this problem,a new Bayesian inference based automatic load prediction method for power dispatch equipment is proposed.By data cleaning and normalization,the preprocessing of operating data of power dispatch equipment was achieved.An automatic load prediction model for power dispatch equipment was constructed through Bayesian inference,and the prediction model was trained to achieve automatic load prediction of power dispatch equipment.The results show that the automatic load prediction method for power dispatch equipment based on Bayesian inference can accurately predict the load value of power dispatch equipment,and the practical application effect is good.

关 键 词：负荷预测 系统调度 电力调度 电力系统 贝叶斯推理 负荷自动预测方法 负荷数值 预测模型 

分 类 号：D26.4[政治法律—政治学]