1990—2021年中国居民眼内异物疾病负担分析与趋势预测  

Analysis of the disease burden of intraocular foreign body in China from 1990 to 2021 and its incidence trend prediction

作　　者：柳姝伊 邹丰锴 卢苇[1] Liu Shuyi;Zou Fengkai;Lu Wei(Department of Ophthalmology,the Second Hospital of Dalian Medical University,Dalian 116000,China;Department of Osteology,the Second Hospital of Dalian Medical University,Dalian 116000,China)

机构地区：[1]大连医科大学附属第二医院眼科,大连116000 [2]大连医科大学附属第二医院骨科,大连116000

出　　处：《中华眼外伤职业眼病杂志》2024年第9期649-656,共8页Chinese Journal of Ocular Trauma and Occupational Eye Disease

摘　　要：目的分析1990—2021年中国居民眼内异物的疾病负担及变化趋势,并预测2022—2050年发病趋势,为减轻我国眼内异物疾病负担和制订科学的防控措施提供参考。方法基于全球疾病负担数据库收集中国居民1990—2021年最新的眼内异物数据,采用年龄标准化发病率、患病率及伤残调整寿命年(DALY)指标分析我国眼内异物疾病负担;通过年估计变化百分比(EAPC)评估眼内异物疾病负担变化趋势;并使用秩和检验分析性别差异;采用自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA)进行趋势预测。结果2021年我国居民眼内异物的年龄标准化发病率为629.18/10万,患病率为116.24/10万,DALY率为6.42/10万;患病人数200.74万,新发病例1012.83万,DALY人数11.01万。1990—2021年,我国居民眼内异物的发病率、患病率和DALY率均呈现先下降后上升趋势,经年龄标准化后发病率、患病率和DALY率的EAPC分别为-1.80(95%CI:-2.87,-0.71)、-1.82(95%CI:-2.89,-0.75)和-2.15(95%CI:-3.23,-1.07);性别分层分析显示男性眼内异物的年龄标准化发病率、患病率和DALY率整体显著均高于女性(均P<0.001);年龄分层分析显示45~49岁人群眼内异物的发病人数最多,50~54岁人群眼内异物的患病人数和DALY人数最多。ARIMA预测2022—2050年眼内异物的DALY率将保持平稳趋势,发病率和患病率将继续上升;发病人数、患病人数和DALY人数呈现下降趋势。结论对比1990年,2021年我国居民眼内异物年龄标准化发病率、患病率和DALY率均降低。但我国人口基数大,预测2022-2050年我国眼内异物疾病负担仍然较重,应制定更多高效的防控策略以减轻眼内异物疾病负担。ObjectiveTo analyze the burden and changing trends of intraocular foreign body(IOFB)in China from 1990 to 2021,and to predict its incidence trend from 2022 to 2050,with a goal to provide basis for reducing the burden of IOFB and formulating relevant prevention and treatment measures.MethodsThe latest data from 1990 to 2021 in the Global Health Data Exchange online database were collected to analyze the disease burden of IOFB in China using age-standardized incidence,prevalence,and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)indicators;trends in the burden of IOFB were assessed by the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC);and gender differences were analyzed using the rank sum test.The auto regressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)was used for trend prediction.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence rate of IOFB in China was 629.18/100000;the prevalence rate was 116.24/100000;and the DALY rate was 6.42/100000 in 2021.The prevalence number of IOFB in China amounted to 2007400 cases,with 10128300 new cases,and 110100 DALY cases.Between 1990 and 2021,the rate of incidence,prevalence,and DALY of IOFB among Chinese residents showed a trend from decline to rise,and the age-standardized incidence rate,prevalence rate,and DALY rate were-1.80(95%CI:-2.87,-0.71),-1.82(95%CI:-2.89,-0.75),and-2.15(95%CI:-3.23,-1.07).Age-stratified analysis showed that the incidence of IOFB was the highest among the 45-49 years,and the incidence and DALY was the highest among the 50-54 years.Gender-stratified analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence,prevalence rate and DALY rate of IOFB in males were significantly higher than those in females(all P<0.001).It was predicted that from 2022 to 2050,the DALY rate would remain stable,while the rate of incidence and prevalence would continue to rise by ARIMA.And the number of incidence,prevalence,and DALY of IOFB would decrease.ConclusionCompared with 1990,the age-standardized rate of incidence,prevalence,and DALY of IOFB in 2021 have reduced.However,due to the large population base in Chi

关 键 词：眼异物 疾病负担 伤残调整寿命年 预测 防控 

分 类 号：R779.14[医药卫生—眼科]