模拟多情景下桂西南峰丛洼地流域土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值的空间响应  

Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Measurement in the Peak Cluster Depression Basin in Southwest Guangxi Under Simulated Multiple Scenarios

作　　者：张亚丽 陈亮 田义超 林俊良 黄柱军 杨芸珍 张强 陶进 ZHANG Ya-li;CHEN Liang;TIAN Yi-chao;LIN Jun-liang;HUANG Zhu-jun;YANG Yun-zhen;ZHANG Qiang;TAO Jin(School of Resources and Environment,Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou 535011,China;Key Laboratory of Marine Geographic Information Resources Development and Utilization in the Beibu Gulf,Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou 535011,China)

机构地区：[1]北部湾大学资源与环境学院,钦州535011 [2]北部湾海洋地理信息资源开发利用重点实验室,钦州535011

出　　处：《环境科学》2024年第12期6935-6948,共14页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42061020);北部湾海洋发展研究中心开放基金项目(BHZKY2205)。

摘　　要：模拟多情景下桂西南峰丛洼地流域土地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值改变,对保障流域生态安全和提升区域生态系统服务价值能力具有重要意义.基于CA-Logistic-Markov模型模拟2030年自然发展、粮食安全和生态保护情景下研究区土地利用,并根据当量因子修正模型,计算各情景下生态系统服务价值,定量分析了桂西南峰丛洼地流域生态系统服务价值的时空动态特征.结果表明:①基于CA-Markov模型模拟的2020年土地利用对比2020年土地利用现状,标准Kappa指数为0.917,位置Kappa指数为0.952,数值Kappa指数为0.958.在对2030年桂西南峰丛洼地流域的土地利用格局的模拟上,CA-Markov模型的模拟具有较高的准确性与参考性.②2000年、2010年和2020年研究区生态系统服务价值分别为2708.81亿、2757.80亿和2783.32亿元,整体呈上升的趋势.③在自然发展、粮食安全和生态保护情景下,生态系统服务价值依次为2821.38亿、2732.06亿和2841.43亿元.研究区生态系统服务价值整体呈现西北高东南低的空间分布特征.与2020年相比,粮食安全情景下的生态系统服务价值明显减少,生态系统遭受破坏;自然发展情景和生态保护情景的生态系统服务价值有所上升,生态环境质量有所提高.④生态服务价值的热点和置信度较高的冷点集聚性较强,热点主要集中在上游的高海拔区域,置信度较高的冷点主要分布在研究区下游的丘陵地区.研究结果揭示了土地利用变化背景下桂西南峰丛洼地流域生态系统服务价值的时空格局,可为优化土地利用结构和空间格局、提升生态系统服务提供科学依据.Simulating the changes in ecosystem service value induced by land use changes in the peak cluster depression basin of southwestern Guangxi under multiple scenarios is of great importance for ensuring ecological security in the basin and enhancing regional ecosystem service value capabilities.Based on the CA-Logistic-Markov model,the land use of the study area was simulated under natural development,food security,and ecological protection scenarios in 2030.The ecosystem service value was calculated under each scenario using the equivalent factor correction model,and the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of the ecosystem service value in the peak cluster depression basin of southwestern Guangxi were quantitatively analyzed.The results showed as follows:①Compared with the current situation of land use in 2020 and the predicted simulated land use in 2020,the standard Kappa index was 0.917,the location Kappa index was 0.952,and the numerical Kappa index was 0.958.In the simulation of the land use pattern of the peak cluster basin in southwest Guangxi in 2030,the CA-Markov model had high accuracy and reference-ability.②Ecosystem service values in the study area for the periods 2000-2020 were 270.881 billion,275.78 billion,and 278.332 billion yuan,indicating an overall upward trend.③The value of ecosystem services in the natural development,the food security,and the ecological protection scenarios was 282138 million,273206 million,and 284143 million,respectively.The study area exhibited a spatial distribution of ecosystem service values with higher values in the northwest and lower values in the southeast.In comparison to that in 2020,the ecosystem service value significantly decreased under the food security scenario,reflecting ecosystem degradation.Meanwhile,ecosystem service values increased under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios,signifying an improvement in ecological environmental quality.④Ecosystem service value hot spots and cold spots with high confidence had strong cluste

关 键 词：模拟多情景 土地利用变化 生态系统服务价值 CA-Markov模型 桂西南峰丛洼地流域 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]