飞机雷雨情景着陆冲出跑道风险预警模型  

Risk Early Warning Model for Aircraft Runway Overturn during Thunderstorm Landing Scenarios

作　　者：张宇辉[1] 胡思睿 常鑫 ZHANG Yu-hui;HU Si-rui;CHANG Xin(College of Transportation Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2024年第33期14491-14501,共11页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFB2600500)。

摘　　要：基于当前对飞机着陆冲出跑道风险的评估和预警量化程度不足且忽略雷雨天气影响的问题,提出一种集成组合赋权法和云模型的飞机雷雨情景着陆冲出跑道风险预警方法。使用狄利克雷分配(Latent Dirichlet allocation, LDA)主题模型对事故报告进行文本挖掘,构建了包含4个一级指标、24个二级指标的风险预警指标体系。采用G1-CRITIC法对风险指标进行赋权,并通过最小欧氏距离确定分配系数以计算组合权重。采用云模型结合指标权重建立综合风险预警模型,选取正常和雷雨情境下运行的航班数据进行风险预警实例验证,结果表明:正常情景下综合风险预警云模型与Ⅰ级“基本正常”区间标准云模型相似度最大,雷雨情景下综合风险预警云模型与Ⅲ级“中度超限”区间标准云模型相似度最大,体现了由正常情景转换为雷雨情景时飞机着陆冲出跑道风险的演化情况,其风险预警结果与实际情况基本一致,验证了评估模型的有效性和可靠性。该模型可为机场、航司管理者对航班在雷雨天气下的运行管理、风险处置策略提供重要参考。Based on the current issues of inadequate quantification in the assessment and early warning of aircraft runway overturns and the neglect of the effects of thunderstorms,a method for aircraft runway overturn risk early warning under thunderstorm scenarios was proposed,integrating a combined weighting method and cloud model.Accident reports were text-mined using the Latent Dirichlet allocation(LDA)topic model to construct a risk early warning index system comprising 4 primary indicators and 24 secondary indicators.The G1-CRITIC method was employed to weight the risk indicators,and allocation coefficients were determined through the minimum Euclidean distance to calculate combination weights.A comprehensive risk early warning model was established by combining the cloud model with indicator weights.Flight data from both normal and thunderstorm scenarios were selected for risk early warning instance verification.The results indicate that under normal scenarios,the comprehensive risk early warning cloud model is most similar to the Level I“Basically Normal”interval standard cloud model,while under thunderstorm scenarios,the comprehensive risk early warning cloud model is most similar to the LevelⅢ“Moderate Exceeded”interval standard cloud model.This reflects the evolution of aircraft runway overturn risk from normal to thunderstorm scenarios,and the risk early warning results are generally consistent with the actual situation,validating the effectiveness and reliability of the assessment model.This model can provide important references for airport and airline managers in the operation and risk management of flights during thunderstorm weather,as well as in risk mitigation strategies.

关 键 词：航空交通运输 风险预警 飞机冲出跑道 文本挖掘 云模型 组合权重 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]