基于MS-VAR模型的数字经济与旅游经济周期研究  

Study on Digital Economy and Tourism Economic Cycles Based on the MS-VAR Model

作　　者：贺剑武 曹兴中 HE Jianwu;CAO Xingzhong(Department of Tourism and Landscape Architecture,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541000,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学旅游与风景园林学院,广西桂林541000

出　　处：《兰州交通大学学报》2024年第6期87-96,共10页Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“基于大数据技术的桂滇黔少数民族非物质文化遗产旅游开发研究”(18XMZ069)。

摘　　要：数字经济通过优化资源配置、催生旅游新业态以及增强市场灵活性等为旅游经济的高质量发展提供了新的动力,但关于数字经济是否能对旅游经济周期产生影响仍未有学者深入探讨。本文利用来自31个省市自治区2010一2022年面板数据,结合MS-VAR模型与面板回归模型进行实证分析。研究结果显示:数字经济的周期波动显著大于旅游经济,数字经济在促进旅游经济稳定方面发挥了积极作用,同时这一促进效应存在明显的时空异质性。具体表现为东部地区的影响最为显著,中部地区次之,而西部地区的影响最弱,并且随着时间的推移,这种影响愈加增强。The digital economy provides new momentum for the high-quality development of the tourism economy by optimizing resource allocation,fostering new tourism formats,and enhancing market flexibility.However,the ques-tion of whether the digital economy can contribute to the stabilization of the tourism economic cycle has yet to be thoroughly explored.This study employs panel data from 31 provinces and regions in China from 2010 to 2022,using a combination of the MS-VAR model and panel regression analysis for empirical investigation.The results show that the cyclical fluctuations of the digital economy are significantly larger than those of the tourism economy.Neverthe-less,the digital economy plays a positive role in promoting tourism stability,with clear spatiotemporal heterogeneity.The specific manifestation is that the influence is most significant in the eastern region,followed by the central re-gion,while the influence in the western region is weakest,and as time goes on,this influence is becoming stronger.

关 键 词：旅游经济 数字经济 周期 MS-VAR 时空异质性 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]