突发事件下城轨站间客流分布预测  

Prediction of Passenger Flow Distribution Between Urban Rail Transit Stations Under Emergent Event

作　　者：焦碧玉 刘志爱 朱广宇[1] JIAO Biyu;LIU Zhiai;ZHU Guangyu(Beijing Research Center of Urban Traffic Information Sensing and Service Technologies,Bei-jing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学北京市城市交通信息智能感知与服务工程技术研究中心,北京100044

出　　处：《综合运输》2024年第11期130-135,共6页China Transportation Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(62272036,62173167,62132003)。

摘　　要：城市轨道交通(后简称城轨)站点间的乘客流量分布预测,是制定突发事件下应急处置策略的基础前提。本文针对面向突发事件的城轨站间客流量分布预测模型进行研究。首先,提出突发事件场景下城轨受影响客流的界定算法;其次,基于客流的分类结果,构建受影响乘客出行备选方案集,建立突发事件下城轨乘客的出行方案选择模型,实现对站间客流分布的预测。利用实际客流相关数据对本文模型进行验证,结果表明该方法具有较高的预测精度。本文结果对突发事件下的运营状态分析、应急处置措施制定,具有一定的参考价值。Predicting passenger flow distribution between urban rail transit(hereinafter referred to as URT)stations is essential for formulating emergency response strategies during emergent events.This paper focuses on studying a predictive model for passenger flow distribution between urban rail stations in the context of emergent events.Firstly,an algorithm is proposed to define the affected passenger flow of URT in emergent events.Secondly,based on the classification results of pas-senger flows,an alternative set of travel options for affected passengers is constructed.Subse-quently,a model for selecting travel options for passengers during emergent events is established to achieve the prediction of inter-station passenger flow distribution.The proposed model is val-idated using actual passenger flow data,demonstrating its high prediction accuracy.The findings of this paper have certain reference value for the analysis of operational status and the formula-tion of response measures during emergent events.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 突发事件 AFC数据 客流分布 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]