实验方法在教育经济领域应用研究新进展  

New Progress in the Application of Experimental Methods in Educational Economics

作　　者：殷德生[1,2] 吴虹仪 陈琳[2] YIN Desheng;WU Hongyi;CHEN Lin(East China Normal University,Shanghai,China;Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学教育经济实验室,200062 [2]华东师范大学经济与管理学院,200233 [3]上海师范大学商学院,200062

出　　处：《经济学动态》2024年第10期128-143,共16页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国式发展经济学自主知识体系研究”(22VRC179)。

摘　　要：自20世纪末以来,循证教育变革不断引领教育公共政策制定由依据经验判断向依据客观证据转变。基于自然实验的因果推断方法是评估教育政策效果的有效工具,其应用有助于促进教育研究科学化和增强教育决策的有效性。本文基于证据驱动教育改革基本行动和运行机制,总结随机对照实验及各种自然实验方法的教育因果推断工具箱,揭示其在教育私人回报率估计与不平等研究、同伴效应与社区效应等教育外部溢出效应研究,以及涉及学校、家庭、影子教育、在线教育、政府等多主体的教育投入产出效率研究中的最新进展。本文还分析了教育多源异构大数据搜集处理以及自然实验方法优化的发展方向,展望大数据和人工智能时代机器学习与教育经济实验方法渗透融合的途径和前景。Education is a critical public policy issue.Within the constraints of limited public resources,policymakers have long been concerned about the extent to which improvements in the quality of the education system can influence human capital accumulation and drive endogenous economic growth.Since the late 20th century,evidence-based educational reforms have increasingly shifted policy making from reliance on experience to reliance on objective evidence.The application and advancement of natural experimental methods have significantly enhanced the scientific rigor of educational research and improved the effectiveness of educational decision-making.This paper first outlines the fundamental principles and potential pitfalls of causal inference in education and reviews the toolkit of natural experimental methods employed by education economists.According to the human capital theory,education is viewed as individual investments to enhance their future performance in the labor market.As such,“receiving education”is an endogenous decision variable,influenced by factors such as individual ability,school resources,family background,distance to school,and compulsory education laws.While randomized controlled trials(RCTs)are regarded as the“gold standard”for causal inference,practical challenges such as spillover effects,identity switching,sample attrition,and changes in participant behavior complicate the generalizability of RCT results.Consequently,education economists have widely adopted natural experimental techniques,including instrumental variables(IVs),differencein-differences(DID),and regression discontinuity design,to provide empirical foundations for policymaking and the promotion of educational interventions.This paper systematically reviews the application and recent development of natural experimental methods in the field of education.Firstly,in studies of private returns to education,existing research has employed IVs such as distance,physiological factors,educational reforms,and random assignments to co

关 键 词：自然实验方法 教育回报率 教育外部效应 人工智能 

分 类 号：G40-054[文化科学—教育学原理]