自然利率研究新进展  

New Advances in the Study of Natural Rate of Interest

作　　者：董丰 王思卿 徐臻阳 孙浩宁 DONG Feng;WANG Siqing;XU Zhenyang;SUN Haoning(Tsinghua University,Beijing,China;Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,100084 [2]中央财经大学经济学院,102206

出　　处：《经济学动态》2024年第10期144-160,共17页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目“宏观经济学”(72122011);国家自然科学基金原创探索计划项目“基于碳中和下新生产函数的经济理论”(72250064)。

摘　　要：自然利率是衡量经济资源配置状况的重要指标,深入研究自然利率有助于理解宏观经济运行态势、识别货币政策状态以及预测经济的长期发展趋势。本文基于关于自然利率的国内外前沿研究,全面分析自然利率的主要影响因素、对宏观经济政策制定的影响、自然利率估算方法及其最新拓展,并系统归纳和总结了当前我国自然利率估算的方法和结论。已有研究发现,近年来我国自然利率出现下降趋势,且技术变化和人口老龄化是主要影响因素。未来研究可重点关注:对细致刻画我国特征的宏观经济模型进行估算;考察气候变化、绿色金融等对我国自然利率估算的影响;扭转自然利率下降趋势的可能因素,如资产泡沫;数字经济时代自然利率的走势。The natural rate of interest is a significant indicator for measuring the status of economic resource allocation.In-depth research into the natural rate of interest contributes to understanding macroeconomic trends,identifying monetary policy conditions,assessing changes in market interest rates,and forecasting long-term economic development trends.This paper delves into the forefront of domestic and international literature on the natural rate of interest,comprehensively examining its primary influencing factors and implications for macroeconomic policymaking.This paper reviews current estimation methodologies and their latest advancements,comparing the strengths and weaknesses of each method.Then,this paper summarizes China's current estimation methods and findings related to the natural rate of interest,further analyzing China's economic trends and macro policy stance.Firstly,regarding influencing factors,traditional research posits that structural and cyclical elements primarily shape the natural rate of interest.In the long run,structural factors such as economic growth,labor productivity,and demographic shifts dictate its trend.Short-term fluctuations,on the other hand,are primarily governed by the relative balance between investment and savings,with crises like financial meltdowns exerting additional influence.Beyond these traditional factors,pandemics like COVID-19 significantly alter individual behaviors and the supply-demand dynamics of capital.Additionally,climate change and transition policies aimed at mitigating its effects reshape the structure and dynamics of economic and financial systems,thereby impacting the natural rate of interest.Secondly,the natural rate of interest carries significant implications for macroeconomic policymaking.It reflects the cost of capital in an economy devoid of price rigidities,prompting a crucial debate on whether policy rates should be anchored to and adjusted around the natural rate.Moreover,the post-global financial crisis and COVID-19 era have ushered in an era of

关 键 词：自然利率 资源配置 货币政策 中国自然利率估算 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]