自主减排、碳关税对中国贸易和福利的影响研究  

The Trade and Welfare Effects of Emission Reduction and Carbon Tariffs on China

作　　者：孟猛[1] 郑昭阳[2] MENG Meng;ZHENG Zhaoyang(School of Economics,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China;Center for Transnationals’Studies,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学经济学院,天津300387 [2]南开大学跨国公司研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第6期62-77,共16页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23BGJ026)。

摘　　要：中国作为《巴黎协定》缔约国之一积极践行自主减排承诺。然而,欧美发达国家/地区无视中国等发展中国家自主减排的贡献,仍以抑制“碳泄露”等为借口征收碳关税,并可能形成碳关税联盟。利用全球能源—环境分析模型在系统评估《巴黎协定》自主减排影响基础上,进一步模拟分析欧盟征收碳关税、美日欧形成碳关税联盟以及低碳技术提升对中国贸易和福利的影响,并探究其影响机制。研究发现:第一,为践行自主减排承诺,中国付出了福利和进出口贸易下降代价,展现了中国作为负责任大国的担当;第二,发达国家/地区征收碳关税将造成中国福利水平的下降,而中国福利水平的下降主要源于中国贸易条件的恶化和贸易量的减少;第三,自主减排和碳关税会深化中国与东盟间的产业合作和经贸往来;第四,中国提升低碳技术可以通过直接和间接两种效应促进国内福利增长,对冲自主减排及碳关税的负面影响。据此提出应加大科研投入提升低碳技术、积极参与国际环境公约与碳排放标准制定、扩大国内碳交易范围并加快碳税立法建设等政策建议。As one of the parties to the Paris Agreement,China has moved quickly in fulfilling its emission reduction commitments.However,ignoring the emission reduction contributions of developing countries such as China,some developed countries continue to impose carbon tariffs on the pretext of curbing“carbon leakage”,and may form carbon tariff alliance.The existing literature seldom provides an accurate assessment of the economic costs of China’s fulfilling its emission reduction commitments and the economic impacts of carbon tariffs,and in particular lacks in-depth analyses of the economic impacts of the formation of carbon tariff alliance in developed countries.On the basis of systematic evaluating the impacts of fulfilling China’s emission reduction commitments in the Paris Agreement,this paper uses the GTAP-E model to simulate the trade and welfare effects of carbon tariffs imposed by the European Union,the formation of carbon tariff alliance,and the upgrading of China’s low-carbon technologies.The results show that:Firstly,in order to reach Chinese emission reduction targets,China pays the price of declining in the trade and welfare;Secondly,carbon tariffs imposed by developed countries will decrease China’s welfare,which mainly stems from the deterioration of China’s terms of trade and the reduction of trade volume;Thirdly,China’s fulfilling emission reduction commitments and developed countries imposing carbon tariffs will deepen industrial cooperation and trade ties between China and ASEAN;Fourthly,China’s upgrading of low-carbon technologies can promote domestic welfare growth through both direct and indirect effects,offsetting the negative impacts of emission reductions commitments and carbon tariffs.The paper contributes the existing literature in three aspects:Firstly,it links the emission reduction commitments of Paris Agreement parties to the framework of carbon tariffs,which makes up for the shortcomings of the existing literature on carbon tariffs ignoring the emission reduction commitme

关 键 词：《巴黎协定》 自主减排 碳关税 贸易结构 福利水平 全球能源—环境分析模型 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F752[经济管理—国际贸易]