高校突发事件中网络谣言传播模型的动力学研究  

Study on the dynamics of network rumor spreading model in emergencies in universities

作　　者：高卫国 蔡永丽 Gao Weiguo;Cai Yongli(School of Computer Science and Technology,Huaiyin Normal University,Huaian 223300,China;School of Mathematical Science,Huaiyin Normal University,Huaian 223300,China)

机构地区：[1]淮阴师范学院计算机科学与技术学院,江苏淮安223300 [2]淮阴师范学院数学与统计学院,江苏淮安223300

出　　处：《河南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2025年第1期50-56,共7页Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(12071173).

摘　　要：针对高校突发事件中网络谣言的传播特点,将高校人群分为无知者、传谣者和管理者(高校教师和学生志愿者宣传员)3类,建立了具有饱和接触率的谣言传播动力学模型,给出了模型平衡点的存在性,分析了平衡点的稳定性,并运用分支理论给出了Hopf分支存在的充分条件.在此基础上,借助数值模拟进一步讨论了谣言传播模型的动力学行为.结果表明:只有当管理强度足够大使得阈值条件满足时,谣言才能得到有效控制,且管理强度越大,谣言控制时间越短.这为人们制定高校突发事件中网络谣言防控措施提供了理论基础和参考依据.Based on the characteristics of the spread of online rumors in emergencies in universities,the university population is divided into three categories:the ignorant,the rumor spreaders,and the managers(university teachers and student volunteer propagandists).A rumor model with saturated contact rate is established.And the existence of the equilibria of the model is proved,and the stability of the equilibria is analyzed,the sufficient conditions for the existence of Hopf bifurcation are given by using bifurcation theory.On this basis,the dynamical behavior of the rumor propagation model is further discussed using numerical simulation.The results show that only when the management intensity is high enough to satisfy the threshold condition,can the rumor be effectively controlled,and the greater the management intensity,the shorter the rumor control time.This provides a theoretical basis and quantitative basis for people to formulate prevention and control measures for online rumors in emergencies in universities.

关 键 词：网络谣言传播 稳定性 HOPF分支 管理强度 动力学 

分 类 号：O175.26[理学—数学]