新型电力系统中长期电力需求趋势研究  

Research on Medium-and Long-term Power Demand Trend of New-type Power System

作　　者：王文飞 卢伟国[2] 支刚 吴政声 Wang Wenfei;Lu Weiguo;Zhi Gang;Wu Zhengsheng(Yunnan Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650051,China;Electrical Engineering College of Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省电力设计院有限公司,云南昆明650051 [2]重庆大学电气工程学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《云南电力技术》2024年第6期2-5,9,共5页Yunnan Electric Power

摘　　要：现代新经济的快速发展,新型电力系统的中长期电力需求预测成为新难题。本文结合电力需求的增长特性,利用S型生长曲线的非线性拟合对电力需求发展趋势进行建模,并考虑饱和电量对模型进行了修正,提出了一种广义Sigmoid函数的中长期负荷预测模型。通过云南历史数据的算例,验证了模型是通用有效的,可为后续中长期电力需求预测提供参考依据。With the rapid development of the modern new economy,the medium-and long-term power demand forecasting of new power systems has become a new challenge.In this paper,combining the growth characteristics of power demand,modeling the power demand development trend by using the nonlinear fitting of the S-shaped growth curve,and correcting the model by considering the saturated power,a medium and long-term load forecasting model with a generalized Sigmoid function is proposed.The model is verified to be generalized and valid through the arithmetic example of Yunnan historical data,which can provide a reference basis for subsequent medium-and long-term power demand forecasting.

关 键 词：新型电力系统 电力需求预测 S型生长曲线 非线性拟合 

分 类 号：TM74[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]