城市交通拥塞影响范围确定及关键路段识别  

Determination of Influence Range of Urban Traffic Congestion and Identification of Key Road Sections

作　　者：赵雪亭 胡立伟[1] 寇芳玲 ZHAO Xueting;HU Liwei;KOU Fangling(School of Transportation Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650550,China;Yunnan Comprehensive Transportation Development Center,Kunming 650031,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,云南昆明650550 [2]云南省综合交通发展中心,云南昆明650031

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报》2024年第6期1389-1397,共9页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42277476,61863019);云南省基础研究计划重点项目(202401AS070065)。

摘　　要：为研究非点源交通拥塞的影响范围及关键路段识别,引入风险场强理论、区域生长法对烟羽模型进行适应性改进,以确定最大、核心影响范围及识别关键路段.首先,对非点源交通拥塞的“源-路径-汇”进行界定,以2021年贵阳市的交通调查数据、交通状态数据等为基础,构建非点源交通拥塞的“源”风险场强模型;考虑不同土地利用性质的交通影响力及不同道路等级调整系数并进行标定,建立基于不同“源”风险的最大影响范围识别模型,引入区域生长法建立路段核心区影响范围确定模型;最后,以路段交通量、长度、时间构建交通拥塞路段损伤性评价指数并对交通拥塞程度进行定量化研究,对原有模型、改进模型及实际情况进行对比分析.结果表明:不同土地利用性质和不同道路等级对路段交通拥塞影响程度不同;改进后的不同“源”风险影响范围识别模型有效性较强,且预测精度提高3.54%,更接近实际情况;考虑区域生长法的路段交通拥塞核心区影响范围准确性更高,与实际情况仅相差2.66%.综上所述,本研究为城市非点源交通拥塞累积性风险区范围划定和风险关键路径确定提供一种新的思路,对进一步开展不同交通拥塞发生类型的治理提供理论依据.In order to determine the influence range of non-point source traffic congestion and identify key road sections,the risk field strength theory and the regional growth method were introduced to improve the plume model.The maximum and core influence ranges were determined,and key road sections were identified.First,the“source-path-sink”of non-point source traffic congestion was defined,and the“source”risk field strength model of non-point source traffic congestion was constructed based on the traffic survey data and traffic status data in Guiyang in 2021.By considering the traffic influence of different land use properties and the adjustment coefficient of different road grades for calibration,the identification model of the maximum influence range was established based on different“source”risks,and the regional growth method was introduced to establish a model for determining the influence range of the core area of the road section.Finally,based on the traffic volume,length,and time of the road section,the damage evaluation index of the road section with traffic congestion was constructed,and quantitative research on the degree of traffic congestion was carried out.The original model,the improved model,and the actual situation were compared.The results show that different land use properties and different road grades have different influences on traffic congestion in road sections.The improved identification model of influence range based on different“source”risks is more effective,and the prediction accuracy is increased by 3.54%,which is closer to the actual situation.With the regional growth method,the accuracy of the influence range of the core area of the road section with traffic congestion is higher,which is 2.66%different from the actual situation.In summary,a new idea for the delineation of the cumulative risk range of urban non-point source traffic congestion and the determination of key risk paths is provided,also serving as a theoretical basis for further governance of different types o

关 键 词：交通工程 区域生长法 风险评估 交通拥塞 损伤性 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]