基于潜航员认知建模的动态作业风险概率评估  

Dynamic probability assessment of operational risk based on cognitive modeling of oceanauts

作　　者：乔一丹 陈登凯[1] 孙意为 廖纹熠 QIAO Yidan;CHEN Dengkai;SUN Yiwei;LIAO Wenyi(Shaanxi Engineering Laboratory for Industrial Design,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710072,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学陕西省工业设计工程实验室,西安710072

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第11期3748-3764,共17页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家重点研发计划专项(2021YFC2800600);陕西省特支计划领军人才项目(W099115)。

摘　　要：相较于其他复杂作业系统,载人深潜作业具有密闭、狭小的极端环境特征以及长航时、高负载的任务性质.载人深潜事故一旦发生,极可能导致重大后果.因此亟需开发一种可以定量评估潜航员认知行为表现及作业风险的动态概率评估方法.提出了基于知识和经验驱动的潜航员认知行为建模方法,将更丰富的性能塑造因素集成到人因可靠性分析方法 IDAC中,并通过系统动力学方法开发作业风险概率评估的认知环境模拟程序,以仿真分析潜航员的动态人因失误概率.以某次载人深潜任务为例验证了所提方法的可行性.研究成果有助于准确地识别关键风险任务,并引导技术人员对相关技术难题进行攻克,以提升舱内人机环系统的总体作业效能.Compared with other complex operation systems,manned deep submergence oper-ation has the characteristics of closed and narrow extreme environment,as well as the nature of long-endurance and high-load tasks.Once the manned deep submerging accident occurs,it is likely to cause major consequences.Therefore,it is urgent to develop a dynamic probability assessment method that can quantitatively assess the cognitive behavior performance and oper-ational risk of oceanauts.The method for modeling the cognitive behavior of oceanauts based on knowledge and experience is proposed,which integrates more performance influencing factors into the IDAC human reliability analysis method,and develops the cognitive environment simu-lation program for probabilistic assessment of operational risk through system dynamics method to simulate the dynamic HEP of oceanauts.Taking a manned deep submerging mission as an example,the feasibility of the proposed method is verified.The research results would help to accurately identify key risk tasks,and guide technicians to overcome relevant technical problems,so as to improve the overall work efficiency of the human-machine-environment system in the cabin.

关 键 词：作业风险 认知建模 系统动力学 人因失误 载人深潜 

分 类 号：TP472[自动化与计算机技术]