社会失信环境与企业违约风险——来自城市失信被执行人的经验证据  

Social Dishonesty Environment and Enterprise Default Risk:Empirical Evidence from Urban Discreditable Persons Subject to Enforcement

作　　者：李彪 霍治方 LI Biao;HUO Zhifang(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2025年第1期80-95,共16页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目“中国人工智能发展的深科技创新模式研究”(2024-HZ-26)。

摘　　要：基于2010—2022年沪深A股上市公司数据,探究了社会失信环境对企业违约风险的影响及其机制。研究表明,社会失信环境对企业违约风险产生显著的正向效应。机制检验发现,社会失信环境通过增加代理成本、加剧融资约束与提高经营风险三条路径来加大企业违约风险。异质性分析显示,社会失信环境对企业违约风险的正向影响在管理层激励较小、分析师关注度较低、数字金融发展水平较低及经济政策不确定性较高的情境下表现更为突出。研究从社会失信环境视角探讨了企业违约风险的影响因素,丰富了社会失信环境的微观经济后果,同时为政府部门进一步深化社会信用体系建设,防范与化解企业违约风险提供了经验证据。Based on the data from A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen between 2010 and 2022,this article studies the impacts and mechanisms of social dishonesty environment on enterprise default risk.The research shows that social dishonesty environment has a significant positive effect on the default risk of enterprises.Mechanism test has found that social dishonesty environment increases enterprise default risk through increasing agency costs,intensifying financing constraints,and increasing operational risks.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive impact of social dishonesty environment on enterprise default risk is more significant in situations when management incentives,analyst attention and the level of digital financial development are low,and the economic policy uncertainty is high.The article discusses the influencing factors of enterprise default risk from the perspective of social dishonesty environment,enriches the microeconomic consequences of social dishonesty environment,and provides empirical evidence for government departments to further deepen the construction of social credit system,prevent and resolve enterprise default risk.

关 键 词：社会失信环境 违约风险 代理成本 融资约束 经营风险 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F272.35[经济管理—国民经济] D64[政治法律—政治学]