应用GeoSOS-FLUS模型估测长江上游地区生态系统服务价值  

Estimation of Ecosystem Service Value in the Upper Yangtze River Region Using the GeoSOS-FLUS Model

作　　者：滕皎 余英 石兆明 陈鹏 周长松 王宇翱 崔中耀 刘明丽 赵彩云 殷晓洁 Teng Jiao;Yu Ying;Shi Zhaoming;Chen Peng;Zhou Changsong;Wang Yu’ao;Cui Zhongyao;Liu Mingli;Zhao Caiyun;Yin Xiaojie(Forestry and Bamboo Industry Research Institute of Yibin,Yibin,Sichuan 644000,P.R.China;Research Institute of tea Industry of Yibin;Southwest Forestry University)

机构地区：[1]宜宾林竹产业研究院,四川·宜宾644000 [2]宜宾市茶产业研究院 [3]西南林业大学

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2025年第1期86-96,119,共12页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31700467);西南林业大学博士科研启动基金项目(112003)。

摘　　要：为探究长江上游地区生态系统服务价值时空变化特征及未来的变化趋势,以长江上游地区2000—2020年3期土地利用和驱动力数据为基础,利用GeoSOS-FLUS模型模拟2030年4种情景的土地利用变化及长江上游地区生态系统服务价值时空演变趋势,并分析长江上游地区不同情景生态系统服务价值和土地利用的特征。结果表明:(1)采用GeoSOS-FLUS模型对长江上游地区未来土地利用模拟,模型精度较好,Kappa系数为0.83,适应度系数(FoM)为0.068。(2)长江上游地区主要以草地和林地为主,草地和林地面积占总面积的比例为70%;2000—2020年,林地、水域、建设用地呈增加趋势,其中建设用地面积增幅达148.66%,耕地和草地面积呈减小趋势,未利用地面积表现为先稳定后增加的趋势。(3)2000—2020年长江上游地区总生态服务价值呈倒“V”型变化;2030年各情景的总生态系统服务价值较2020年均有增加,其中生态保护情景下总生态系统服务价值最大(89 078.94亿元);各地类生态系统服务价值与其面积变化趋势一致。生态服务功能一级类型的生态系统服务价值由大到小顺序为:调节服务、支持服务、供给服务、文化服务;二级类型的水资源供给生态系统服务价值变化幅度最大,在各情景生态系统服务价值均增加350亿元以上。(4)研究区各年份单位面积生态系统服务价值均以中等级和较高等级为主,空间分异特征明显,其中长江上游中部山地及青藏高原部分区域单位面积生态系统服务价值较高,而四川和重庆主城区生态系统服务价值呈较低等级和低等级集中分布区域。因此,在促进经济快速发展的同时,需要加强对局部城镇建成区和扩展新区生态服务功能的补偿与维护。To explore the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of ecosystem service value (ESV) in the Upper Yangtze River region and its future trends, this study is based on three periods of land use and driving force data from^(2)000 to 2020. The GeoSOS-FLUS model is employed to simulate land use changes and the spatiotemporal evolution trends of ecosystem service value in four scenarios for the year 2030. Additionally, the study analyzes the characteristics of ecosystem service value and land use under different scenarios in the Upper Yangtze River region. The results showed that: (1) Using the GeoSOS- FLUS model, the simulation of future land use in the Upper Yangtze River region shows good model accuracy, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.83 and a FoM value of 0.068. (2) The Upper Yangtze River region is primarily characterized by grasslands and forests, which together account for 70% of the total area. From^(2)000 to 2020, forest land, water area, and construction land exhibited an increasing trend, with construction land area increasing by 148.66%. Conversely, cultivated land and grassland areas showed a decreasing trend, and the area of unused land first stabilized and then increased. (3) The total ESV in the Upper Yangtze River region from^(2)000 to 2020 exhibited an inverted “V” pattern. By 2030, total ecosystem service value is expected to increase in all scenarios compared to 2020, with the ecological protection scenario yielding the highest total ecosystem service value of 89 078.94 million yuan. The changes in ecosystem service value for various land types align with the trends in their respective areas. In terms of primary ecosystem service functions, the rank of ecosystem service value from highest to lowest is as follows: regulating services, supporting services, provisioning services, and cultural services. The secondary type of water resource provisioning ecosystem service value has the largest variation, increasing by over 35 billion yuan in all scenarios. (4) In the study area, the unit area ecosys

关 键 词：土地利用 生态系统服务价值 GeoSOS-FLUS模型 时空特征 长江上游地区 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济] X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]