人口年龄结构如何影响地方政府学前教育财政投入?——基于2007—2021年省级面板数据的研究  

How Does Age Structure of Population Affect Local Government’s Expenditure on Early Childhood Education?--A Study Based on Provincial Panel Data From 2007 to 2021

作　　者：刘颖[1] 孙兵 刘谦 LIU Ying;SUN Bing;LIU Qian(School of Education Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210097 China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学教育科学学院,南京210097

出　　处：《学前教育研究》2024年第12期11-24,共14页Studies in Early Childhood Education

基　　金：全国教育科学规划国家青年项目“质量视域下幼儿园教师待遇保障机制研究——基于循证决策的理念”(编号:CHA200267)。

摘　　要：近年来,我国人口呈现出持续的低生育率以及老龄化的变动趋势。人口变动已成为影响我国学前教育事业发展最为重要的宏观背景。为考察人口年龄结构对地方学前教育财政投入的影响,本研究运用双重面板固定效应模型对2007—2021年全国30个省份的面板数据进行了分析。研究发现,适龄幼儿占比显著地正向预测学前教育财政投入规模,负向预测生均学前教育财政投入水平。人口老龄化显著地负向预测学前教育财政投入规模和生均学前教育财政投入水平。研究还发现,人口老龄化通过提高社会保障和医疗卫生支出的中介作用,负向影响学前教育财政投入规模。基于此,我们要特别警惕人口的少子老龄化带来的学前教育财政投入水平下行风险,重视人民群众对学前教育质量的需求,健全生均财政拨款制度,明确并逐步提升拨款标准;充分认识到公共资源的代际竞争,建立学前教育财政投入增长机制,提高学前教育财政支出效率。The past few years have witnessed a steady decrease in birth rates and an increasing elderly population in China.The demographic shift has become a vital macro-level factor affecting the development of early childhood education(ECE)services in the country.To investigate the impact of demographic factors on public funding for ECE,this research utilized a two-way panel fixed-effects model to analyze panel data from 30 provinces in China between 2007 and 2021.The research found that the proportion of preschool-age children significantly positively predicts the scale of public funding and negatively predicts per-student public funding.The population ageing significantly and negatively predicts both the scale of public funding and the level of per-student public funding in ECE.The study also discovered that the population ageing negatively impacts the scale of fiscal investment in preschool education through the mediation roles of higher expenditures on medical health and social security.Thus,we should be particularly alert to the downside risks to the level of financial investment in ECE arising from the ageing of the population with fewer new-born children.It is also suggested that people’s demand for the quality of preschool education should be valued,and the per capita financial allocation mechanism should be improved.It is necessary to recognize the potential intergenerational competition for the use of public resources,establish a growth mechanism for fiscal investment in ECE and enhance the efficiency of fiscal expense.

关 键 词：人口年龄结构 学前教育财政 人口老龄化 代际竞争 

分 类 号：G619.2[文化科学—学前教育学]