无人机蜂群攻击意图判断方法研究  

Research on a Judging Method for the Attack Intent of Drone Swarm

作　　者：孙海文 韩啸 陈婷 李丹 李烨 靳子荣 SUN Haiwen;HAN Xiao;CHEN Ting;LI Dan;LI Ye;JIN Zirong(Naval Research Institute,Beijing 100161,China)

机构地区：[1]海军研究院,北京100161

出　　处：《兵工学报》2024年第S02期25-35,共11页Acta Armamentarii

摘　　要：无人机蜂群攻击意图判断涉及较多模糊不确定性因素,且判断过程属于不确定性推理过程,针对无人机蜂群攻击意图判断问题,提出一种基于离散动态贝叶斯网络-云模型的无人机蜂群攻击意图判断方法。根据无人机蜂群运用特点,构建无人机蜂群攻击意图判断指标体系,利用模糊逻辑理论将指标体系中的连续型变量转化为离散型变量,建立无人机蜂攻击意图判断方法模型,针对评估过程中指标数据缺失问题,采用前向信息修补算法进行信息预测修补。仿真分析结果表明:所提方法具有一定的容错能力,可结合前后信息进行有效判断,准确度更高。为反无人机蜂群运用指挥决策提供参考依据。The judgement of drone swarm attack intent involves many fuzzy and uncertain factors,and the judgement process belongs to the uncertainty reasoning process.A judging method based on discrete dynamic Bayesian network model is proposed for the judgement of drone swarm attack intent.According to the characteristics of drone swarm use,an indicator system for the determination of drone swarm attack intent is constructed.The continuous variables in the indicator system are transformed into the discrete variables by using fuzzy logic theory,and a model for drone swarm attack intent determination method is established.To address the problem of missing the indicator data in the evaluation process,a forward information repairing algorithm is used for information prediction and repairing.The simulated results show that the proposed method has a certain degree of fault tolerance,and can effectively judge the attack intent of drone swarm target based on the information before and after repairing,providing a reference for anti-drone swarm combat command decision-making.

关 键 词：无人机蜂群 攻击意图判断 离散动态贝叶斯网络 预测修补 

分 类 号：TP393[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]