基于SD的不确定条件下闭环供应链稳定性分析  

Stability Analysis of Closed-loop Supply Chain under Uncertainty Based on SD

作　　者：段玮 刘明雳 徐德生 李雪琳 DUAN Wei;LIU Mingli;XU Desheng;LI Xuelin(School of Economics&Management,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot 010051;Inner Mongolia Research Center for Management Modernization,Hohhot 014030,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学经济管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古管理现代化研究中心,内蒙古呼和浩特014030

出　　处：《物流技术》2024年第10期102-114,共13页Logistics Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72264029);内蒙古自然科学基金(2021MS07016,2022MS07012);自治区直属高等学校基本科研项目(JY20220023,JY20220055)。

摘　　要：为探究闭环供应链企业在遭到不确定风险后,是否仍能保持正常运转,构建了由制造商、零售商和回收商构成的三级闭环供应链的SD模型。借助VENSIM软件对模型进行了200次的蒙特卡洛模拟实验,以外生变量波动后的影响来探讨不确定情况下闭环供应链的稳定性。通过观察闭环供应链的整体波动情况,找到带来较大不确定性的因素,并为保证闭环供应链参与者的资金和库存稳定提出建议。结果表明,对制造商而言,每一类参数波动都会给其带来一定影响;相较于制造商,零售商主体比较稳定,只有零售商相关参数会影响其自身库存;三个主体中,回收商稳定性最差;多因素模拟结果与单因素模拟类似,回收商最不稳定,零售商最稳定,制造商介于两者之间。Discarding waste products at will not only causes environmental pollution,but also produces huge waste of resources.The closed-loop supply chain has earned widespread concern because of its integration of concepts such as material circulation and green recycling.Compared with the traditional supply chain,the closed-loop supply chain introduces in recycling enterprises and involves more factors,making the supply chain agents more susceptible to the changes of exogenous variables,which is undoubtedly challenging in the development of the closed-loop supply chain.In order to explore whether closed-loop supply chain enterprises can still maintain normal operation after being exposed to the risk of uncertainty,we built the SD model of a three-level closed-loop supply chain composed of a manufacturer,a retailer and a recycler.With the VENSIM software,we carried out 200 Monte Carlo simulation experiments on the model,and discussed the influence of exogenous variable fluctuation on the stability of the closed-loop supply chain.By observing the overall fluctuation of the closed-loop supply chain,we found the factors bringing greater uncertainty,and made suggestions to ensure the funding and inventory stability of the participants in the closed-loop supply chain.The results show that fluctuation of each parameter will influence the manufacturer to a certain extent;compared with the manufacturer,the retailer is relatively more stable,and only retailer-related parameters would affect its inventory.Among the three participants,the recycler is the most susceptible one.The results of the multi-factor simulation corroborated these findings.Through single factor and multi-factor simulation,we revealed the influence degree of different exogenous variables on three participants of the closed-loop supply chain,which provided theoretical support and practical guidance for closed-loop supply chain management.According to the research results,suggestions were put forward as follows.The manufacturer should implement diversified business

关 键 词：不确定性 闭环供应链 稳定性 系统动力学 灵敏度分析 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]