2000—2030年江西省各地级市5岁以下儿童死亡率估计和趋势分析  

Estimates and trends analysis of under 5 mortality rates by prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi,2000-2030

作　　者：张兴超 陈三仟 马婧杰 邓雨婷 周思雨 丁静 胡松波 ZHANG Xingchao;CHEN Sanqian;MA Jingjie;DENG Yuting;ZHOU Siyu;DING Jing;HU Songbo(Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Jiangxi Medical College,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330006,China;Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330006,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,南昌330006 [2]疾病预防与公共卫生江西省重点实验室,南昌330006

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2024年第11期1330-1335,共6页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：江西省自然科学基金(20224BAB206094);江西省卫健委科技计划(202211345);国家自然科学基金(81960618)。

摘　　要：目的分析2000—2030年江西省各地级市5岁以下儿童死亡率(under 5 mortality rate,U5MR)的趋势和地区差异。方法采用2000—2012年江西省县(区)U5MR、出生人口计算各地级市U5MR,构建线性混合效应模型估计2013—2022年江西省各地级市的U5MR。用一阶单变量灰色模型[grey model with one variable and one-order differential equation,GM(1,1)]或等维递补GM(1,1)模型对2023—2030年江西省各地级市U5MR进行预测。用集中指数和集中曲线衡量江西省5岁以下儿童的健康不平等。结果2000年江西省U5MR为48.842‰,最低和最高的地级市分别为南昌市(36.616‰)、赣州市(58.729‰)。2030年江西省U5MR预计为3.472‰,最低和最高地级市预计分别为南昌市(1.980‰)、宜春市(4.987‰)。2000—2030年江西省各地级市的U5MR均呈快速下降趋势,地区差异随U5MR的下降在逐渐缩小。2000、2005、2010、2015、2020年江西省5岁以下儿童死亡率的集中指数分别为-0.051、-0.065、-0.090、-0.096、-0.101。结论2000—2030年江西省U5MR整体呈下降趋势,地区差异随U5MR的下降在逐渐缩小,与社会经济水平相关的5岁以下儿童健康不平等呈扩大趋势。Objective To analyze the trend and regional differences in the under 5 mortality rate(U5MR)at the level of each prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi from 2000 to 2030 U5MR over this period.Methods The U5MR of each prefecture-level city in Jiangxi was calculated based on the U5MR of each district and county in Jiangxi and the birth population from 2000 to 2012,and then based on this data,a linear mixed-effects model was constructed to estimate the U5MR of prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi from 2013 to 2022.GM(1,1)or equal-dimensional recursive GM(1,1)model was used to forecast U5MR in Jiangxi prefecture-level cities from 2023 to 2030.Health inequalities among children under 5 years of age in Jiangxi were measured using the concentration index and concentration curve.Results In 2000,the U5MR in Jiangxi was 48.842‰,with the lowest and highest prefecture-level cities being Nanchang(36.616‰)and Ganzhou(58.729‰),respectively.In 2030,the U5MR in Jiangxi might be 3.472‰,with the lowest and highest prefecture-level cities projected to be Nanchang(1.980‰)and Yichun(4.987‰),respectively.The U5MR of each prefecture-level city in Jiangxi got a rapid decline from 2000 to 2030,and the regional differences were gradually narrowing with the decline of U5MR.The concentration indices of U5MR in Jiangxi in 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020 were-0.051,-0.065,-0.090,-0.096 and-0.101,respectively.Conclusions From 2000 to 2030,the overall U5MR in Jiangxi shows a decreasing trend,and the regional differences gradually narrows with the decrease of U5MR,and the inequality in the health of children under 5 years of age related to the socio-economic level shows a widening trend.

关 键 词：5岁以下儿童死亡率 线性混合效应模型 GM(1 1)模型 集中指数 

分 类 号：R179[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]