新能源发电预测方法分类及研究进展  

Classification and Research Progress of New Energy Power GenerationForecasting Methods

作　　者：郑晓亮[1] 杨晓亮 来文豪 ZHENG Xiao-liang;YANG Xiao-liang;LAI Wen-hao(School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学电气与信息工程学院,淮南232001

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2024年第34期14503-14521,共19页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国网安徽省电力有限公司2023年科技项目(52120023001Q);安徽省高校自然科学研究项目(2023AH051214)。

摘　　要：在国家的现代能源体系结构建设下,全国风力、光伏的发电机组容量快速增长。风、光等可再生能源的发电方式具有随机性、波动性等特点,大量接入电网时,对电力系统的稳定运行以及并网功率平滑带来巨大挑战。准确预测新能源发电电量,不仅能够提高电网的消纳能力减轻电网的调度负担,还能在一定程度上减少经济成本。因此,新能源发电预测技术的研究显得尤为重要。鉴于此,现将回顾近年来已建立的几种预测方法的分类以及新提出的新能源发电预测的方法,就模型应用原理的不同以及在实际应用上的局限性进行分析,总结出不同方法的优缺点及可改进的地方。最后,分析目前新能源发电预测面临的挑战,并提出未来可能解决的方向,给予新能源发电预测技术的相关研究人员一定的参考及指导。Under the construction of the country s modern energy system structure,the generating capacity of wind and photovoltaic is growing rapidly across the country.Wind,light,and other renewable energy generation methods are characterized by randomness and volatility,and when a large number of them are connected to the power grid,it poses a huge challenge to the stable operation of the power system as well as grid power smoothing.Accurate prediction of new energy power generation can not only improve the grid s ability to reduce the grid s scheduling burden,but also reduce the economic costs to a certain extent.Therefore,the research of new energy generation forecasting technology is particularly important.A review was conducted of the classification of several prediction methods that had been established in recent years,alongside the newly proposed methods for new energy generation prediction.The analysis delved into the differences in the application principles of the models and the limitations encountered in their practical applications.Furthermore,the review summarized the advantages and disadvantages of the various methods,identifying areas where improvements could be made.Lastly,the current challenges faced by renewable energy generation forecasting were analyzed,and potential directions for future solutions were proposed,offering valuable reference and guidance to researchers in renewable energy generation forecasting technologies.

关 键 词：新能源 风力发电 光伏发电 发电预测 

分 类 号：TM61[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]