大国担当与合作共赢:“一带一路”倡议的政策效应评估  

Responsibility of a Major Country and Win-Win Cooperation:Policy Effect Assessment of China’s Belt and Road Initiative

作　　者：罗知[1] 张一诺 向婷 柏杨 Luo Zhi;Zhang Yinuo;Xiang Ting;Bai Yang

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [3]广东领益智造股份有限公司 [4]湖北省企业上市发展促进会

出　　处：《世界经济》2024年第12期3-34,共32页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA037);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073102);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790061)的资助。

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议的政策效应可分为两个阶段:中国提出“一带一路”倡议和中国与一国就“一带一路”倡议达成合作共识。本文基于2007-2019年的跨国数据,结合双边合作文件信息,评估了这两个阶段对双边经贸关系的影响。研究发现,中国自提出“一带一路”倡议后,便增加了对沿线各国的援助,彰显了大国担当;当中国与一国就“一带一路”倡议达成合作共识后,中国会增加对该国的直接投资,有助于实现共赢。进一步“,一带一路”强合作共识会显著提升中国对一国的直接投资,弱合作共识则无此效果。机制检验结果表明“,一带一路”倡议的提出和达成合作共识都对中国在基础设施领域的对外直接投资产生了积极影响;而在加强营商环境和人文交流方面,则是“一带一路”合作共识起到了关键作用。The policy implications of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)can be categorised into two phases:China’s BRI proposal and the establishment of a cooperative consensus between China and the other participating countries.Based on information from bilateral cooperation documents and cross-border data from between 2007 and 2019,this paper assesses the impact of these two phases on bilateral economic and trade relations.The study’s findings indicate that since the introduction of the BRI,China has been increasing its assistance to countries along the Belt and Road,highlighting its commitment as a leading nation.When a country reaches a cooperation consensus with China on the BRI,China begins to increase its direct investment in that country,thus contributing to a win-win scenario.A strong cooperation consensus on the Belt and Road also significantly boosts China’s direct investment in other countries,while a weak consensus holds it back.The mechanism analysis indicates that in the infrastructure sector,both the BRI proposal and the establishment of a cooperation consensus have had a significant positive impact.The cooperation consensus plays a crucial role in improving the business environment and promoting cultural exchange.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 互动合作 援助 对外直接投资 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]